Causal Inference

POLI_SCI 403: Probability and Statistics

Making causal claims

 

How do we know \(X\) causes \(Y\)?

 

Can data help us make causal claims?

 

When is a causal claim not appropriate?

Agenda

  • Potential outcomes framework
  • Random assignment
  • Observational studies
  • Quasi-experiments (if we have time)
  • Lab

Potential Outcomes Framework

Setup

Notation

  • \(D_i = \{0,1\}\) condition (0: control, 1: treatment)

  • \(Y_i(D_i)\) is the individual potential outcome

\[ Y_i = \begin{cases} Y_i(0) & : & D_i = 0 \\ Y_i(1) & : & D_i = 1 \end{cases} \]

Switching equation

\[ Y_i = Y_i(1) D_i + Y_i(0) (1 - D_i) \]

Toy example

ID \(Y_i(1)\) \(Y_i(0)\)
1 0 0
2 1 0
3 1 0
4 1 1

\(\tau_i = Y_i(1) - Y_i(0)\) is the unit-level treatment effect

 

Toy example

ID \(Y_i(1)\) \(Y_i(0)\) \(\tau_i\)
1 0 0 0
2 1 0 1
3 1 0 1
4 1 1 0

\(\tau_i = Y_i(1) - Y_i(0)\) is the unit-level treatment effect

 

\(E[\tau_i] = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \tau_i\) is the average treatment effect (ATE)

Assumption

Stable Unit Treatment Value (SUTVA)

Potential outcomes are stable, meaning:

  1. No unobserved multiple versions of the treatment: Treatment is the same for everyone

  2. No interference: Unit \(i\)’s potential outcome is not affected by \(j\)’s potential outcome

Challenge

ID \(Y_i(1)\) \(Y_i(0)\) \(\tau_i\)
1 0 0 0
2 1 0 1
3 1 0 1
4 1 1 0

Challenge

Unobserved
ID \(Y_i(1)\) \(Y_i(0)\) \(\tau_i\)
1 0 0 0
2 1 0 1
3 1 0 1
4 1 1 0

Assign condition \(D_i\) (0: control, 1: treatment)

Challenge

Unobserved
Observed
ID \(Y_i(1)\) \(Y_i(0)\) \(\tau_i\) \(D_i\) \(Y_i\)
1 0 0 0 1 0
2 1 0 1 0 0
3 1 0 1 1 1
4 1 1 0 0 1

To know \(E[\tau_i]\) we need \((Y_i(1) - Y_i(0))\)

But we only observe one at a time for each unit

Challenge

Unobserved
Observed
ID \(Y_i(1)\) \(Y_i(0)\) \(\tau_i\) \(D_i\) \(Y_i\)
1 0 0 0 1 0
2 1 0 1 0 0
3 1 0 1 1 1
4 1 1 0 0 1

This is the FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM OF CAUSAL INFERENCE

Challenge

Unobserved
Observed
ID \(Y_i(1)\) \(Y_i(0)\) \(\tau_i\) \(D_i\) \(Y_i\)
1 0 0 0 1 0
2 1 0 1 0 0
3 1 0 1 1 1
4 1 1 0 0 1

How do we approximate \(E[\tau_i]\) with observed data?

ATE decomposition

\[ E[\tau_i] \]

Substitute unit-level treatment effect

ATE decomposition

\[ \begin{align} E[\tau_i] & = E[Y_i(1) - Y_i(0)] \end{align} \]

Apply linearity of expectations

ATE decomposition

\[ \begin{align} E[\tau_i] & = E[Y_i(1) - Y_i(0)] \\ & = E[Y_i(1)] - E[Y_i(0)] \end{align} \]

We can only calculate

\[ E[Y_i(1) | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

We need to convince ourselves that

\[ E[Y_i(1)] - E[Y_i(0)] = E[Y_i(1) | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

ATE decomposition

\[ \begin{align} E[\tau_i] & = E[Y_i(1) - Y_i(0)] \\ & = E[Y_i(1)] - E[Y_i(0)] \end{align} \]

We can only calculate

\[ E[Y_i(1) | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

We need to convince ourselves that

\[ E[Y_i(1)] - E[Y_i(0)] = E[Y_i(1) \color{purple}{| D_i = 1}] - E[Y_i(0) \color{purple}{| D_i = 0}] \]

ATE decomposition

\[ \begin{align} E[\tau_i] & = E[Y_i(1) - Y_i(0)] \\ & = E[Y_i(1)] - E[Y_i(0)] \end{align} \]

We can only calculate

\[ E[Y_i(1) | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

We need to convince ourselves that \(D_i\) can be ignored

\[ E[Y_i(1)] - E[Y_i(0)] = E[Y_i(1) \color{purple}{| D_i = 1}] - E[Y_i(0) \color{purple}{| D_i = 0}] \]

Obstacle

\[ E[Y_i(1) | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

Obstacle

\[ E[\color{purple}{Y_i(1)} | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

Rewrite to include \(\tau_i\)

\[ = E[\color{purple}{\tau_i + Y_i(0)} | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

Apply linearity of expectations again

\[ = E[\color{purple}{\tau_i} | D_i = 1] + E[\color{purple}{Y_i(0)} | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

Obstacle

\[ E[\color{purple}{Y_i(1)} | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

Rewrite to include \(\tau_i\)

\[ = E[\color{purple}{\tau_i + Y_i(0)} | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0] \]

Apply linearity of expectations again

\[ = \underbrace{E[\color{purple}{\tau_i} | D_i = 1]}_{\text{ATE on the treated (ATT)}} + \underbrace{E[\color{purple}{Y_i(0)} | D_i = 1] - E[Y_i(0) | D_i = 0]}_{\text{Selection bias}} \]

We want to eliminate selection bias

How?

Strategy 1: Random assignment

If treatment \(D_i\) is randomly assigned

  • Potential outcomes are independent from treatment: \((Y_i(0), Y_i(1)) \perp \!\!\! \perp D_i\)
  • Positivity: \(0 < \text{Pr}[D_i = 1] < 1\)
  • ATE \(E[\tau_i]\) is point-identified
  • Estimate with difference in means between treatment and control: \(\widehat E_{DM}[\tau_i] = \widehat E[Y_i(1)] - \widehat E[Y_i(0)]\)
difference_in_means(Y ~ D, data = data) # estimatr package

Randomization inference

  1. Choose a test statistic and sharp null hypothesis

  2. Calculate observed test statistic \(T^{obs}\)

  3. Randomly shuffle treatment assignment

  4. Calculate test statistic \(\widetilde T_1\)

  5. Repeat \(K\) times to obtain distribution of test statistics \(\widetilde T = \{\widetilde T_1, \ldots, \widetilde T_K \}\)

  6. p-value: Proportion in \(\widetilde T >= T^{obs}\)

Example

experiment
     ID           Y D
1   001  0.73452088 1
2   002  0.77074300 0
3   003  0.43603904 1
4   004 -0.08670346 0
5   005  0.68140405 0
6   006  1.97004908 0
7   007  0.03467949 0
8   008 -0.15014153 0
9   009  1.93785072 1
10  010  1.03405589 1
11  011 -0.63776244 0
12  012 -0.02706806 1
13  013  1.07300224 1
14  014 -1.93937350 1
15  015  0.02790501 1
16  016 -0.35149453 0
17  017  0.54079046 0
18  018  1.44996706 0
19  019  0.73112967 1
20  020  0.79690824 0
21  021 -0.27269854 0
22  022 -0.27808426 1
23  023  0.51189702 0
24  024  1.36787778 0
25  025 -0.53588199 0
26  026 -0.97449045 1
27  027 -0.30534497 1
28  028  0.78755569 0
29  029  1.29057502 0
30  030 -0.29850392 0
31  031  1.35695956 1
32  032  1.66123394 1
33  033 -0.10080816 1
34  034  2.22298971 1
35  035  0.37412061 0
36  036  0.96894977 0
37  037 -0.73311578 1
38  038  3.80851080 0
39  039  0.28927338 1
40  040  2.08703325 1
41  041  0.54731664 0
42  042  0.75394287 0
43  043  0.09015847 1
44  044 -0.90991412 0
45  045 -0.03775686 1
46  046 -0.01659609 0
47  047  1.40690978 1
48  048 -0.01060873 1
49  049  0.01867026 1
50  050  0.76318358 1
51  051 -0.79504822 0
52  052 -0.55555399 0
53  053 -1.33573394 0
54  054  0.32093037 0
55  055 -0.46741037 1
56  056  0.18678302 0
57  057  1.12459600 0
58  058 -0.07427236 1
59  059 -0.08427221 1
60  060  1.09717098 1
61  061 -0.63543347 0
62  062  0.33663997 0
63  063  0.36397851 0
64  064 -0.86762819 1
65  065  0.63749833 1
66  066  0.03136840 1
67  067 -0.50679316 0
68  068  1.45469951 1
69  069  1.05952630 0
70  070 -0.07452616 0
71  071 -0.58036503 1
72  072 -0.21894114 1
73  073  1.59581402 1
74  074 -0.32160300 0
75  075 -0.64248143 0
76  076  0.24132506 1
77  077 -1.54571192 0
78  078  1.42652245 1
79  079  0.13653512 1
80  080 -0.15238495 0
81  081  0.61609104 0
82  082 -0.19122112 1
83  083  0.91385643 1
84  084 -0.28182279 0
85  085 -0.85947519 0
86  086 -0.69182843 0
87  087 -0.47407936 0
88  088  0.58345214 1
89  089  1.65531353 1
90  090 -0.79963168 0
91  091 -0.52715729 1
92  092  0.39807853 1
93  093  0.41642051 1
94  094 -1.09120280 1
95  095  0.17952844 1
96  096 -1.83358910 0
97  097  1.15446368 1
98  098  0.44128714 1
99  099  1.47267069 0
100 100  0.06886880 0

Create randomization distribution

set.seed(20241108)

null_df = experiment %>% 
  specify(Y ~ D) %>% 
  hypothesize(null = "independence") %>% 
  generate(reps = 1000, type = "permute") %>% 
  split(.$replicate) %>% 
  map(~difference_in_means(Y ~ D, data = .)) %>% 
  map(tidy) %>% 
  bind_rows(.id = "replicate")
     replicate term      estimate std.error     statistic     p.value
1            1    D  0.1153412268 0.1878193  0.6141073101 0.540573797
2            2    D -0.1826480966 0.1872737 -0.9753002555 0.332012531
3            3    D  0.2955517522 0.1857970  1.5907241794 0.114984414
4            4    D -0.0668328670 0.1880592 -0.3553820001 0.723071275
5            5    D  0.2622549322 0.1863063  1.4076545925 0.162397711
6            6    D  0.1611433858 0.1874750  0.8595459148 0.392172528
7            7    D  0.1017260419 0.1878996  0.5413850878 0.589571462
8            8    D -0.0279077043 0.1881593 -0.1483195916 0.882395417
9            9    D -0.1205967677 0.1877856 -0.6422043886 0.522313453
10          10    D  0.2249861257 0.1868029  1.2044036039 0.231334398
11          11    D  0.0111052940 0.1881770  0.0590151406 0.953066314
12          12    D -0.3259859333 0.1852768 -1.7594534571 0.081714278
13          13    D  0.1675767012 0.1874175  0.8941360314 0.373624078
14          14    D -0.1554821756 0.1875238 -0.8291330552 0.409057329
15          15    D -0.2242053566 0.1868125 -1.2001624229 0.232983652
16          16    D -0.1361690588 0.1876770 -0.7255501312 0.469933582
17          17    D -0.1545070202 0.1875320 -0.8238967521 0.412047883
18          18    D  0.2187984315 0.1868779  1.1708094455 0.244515455
19          19    D  0.1799442922 0.1873004  0.9607255307 0.339186460
20          20    D -0.0142672792 0.1881749 -0.0758192647 0.939722266
21          21    D -0.0023951847 0.1881802 -0.0127281426 0.989871318
22          22    D  0.1278327399 0.1877368  0.6809146571 0.497551454
23          23    D  0.0674356898 0.1880570  0.3585916815 0.720770705
24          24    D  0.0404156883 0.1881361  0.2148215669 0.830353599
25          25    D -0.3547861433 0.1847361 -1.9205023223 0.058301550
26          26    D  0.1320541191 0.1877070  0.7035120167 0.483407490
27          27    D  0.1677531492 0.1874158  0.8950851945 0.373065225
28          28    D  0.0666607318 0.1880599  0.3544655007 0.723813831
29          29    D  0.1726545544 0.1873704  0.9214611071 0.359200407
30          30    D -0.0793481629 0.1880096 -0.4220431583 0.673920037
31          31    D -0.1296072153 0.1877244 -0.6904122462 0.491583964
32          32    D  0.0533549863 0.1881032  0.2836474488 0.777290271
33          33    D -0.0375219099 0.1881422 -0.1994337788 0.842348788
34          34    D -0.2641900978 0.1862784 -1.4182539992 0.159299447
35          35    D -0.1221630750 0.1877753 -0.6505811126 0.516912825
36          36    D  0.0598267303 0.1880833  0.3180863354 0.751097054
37          37    D -0.0619667999 0.1880762 -0.3294770284 0.742511121
38          38    D  0.1682873113 0.1874110  0.8979587515 0.371484367
39          39    D -0.0278088028 0.1881594 -0.1477938476 0.882810423
40          40    D  0.0803134396 0.1880054  0.4271868498 0.670193955
41          41    D -0.3733916212 0.1843616 -2.0253224543 0.045745216
42          42    D -0.0841410631 0.1879883 -0.4475866333 0.655480471
43          43    D  0.3074203062 0.1856004  1.6563561851 0.101218395
44          44    D -0.1769068587 0.1873299 -0.9443597686 0.347347190
45          45    D -0.1642876295 0.1874472 -0.8764476426 0.383033209
46          46    D -0.0623282683 0.1880750 -0.3314011009 0.741078908
47          47    D -0.0613653298 0.1880783 -0.3262755251 0.744912490
48          48    D -0.0932679240 0.1879444 -0.4962527998 0.620830229
49          49    D -0.0539113345 0.1881016 -0.2866075911 0.775032449
50          50    D  0.0635588234 0.1880708  0.3379515468 0.736137859
51          51    D -0.1161411557 0.1878143 -0.6183829054 0.537827653
52          52    D  0.1248537843 0.1877573  0.6649744782 0.507727947
53          53    D -0.1517165512 0.1875553 -0.8089165188 0.420685306
54          54    D -0.2563627286 0.1863900 -1.3754105029 0.172140793
55          55    D -0.2824650274 0.1860046 -1.5185917411 0.132443367
56          56    D  0.0548065878 0.1880989  0.2913710949 0.771411820
57          57    D  0.2790049733 0.1860579  1.4995602140 0.137179645
58          58    D  0.0235251099 0.1881654  0.1250235893 0.900762201
59          59    D -0.2318957099 0.1867167 -1.2419656113 0.217261577
60          60    D  0.0905554253 0.1879579  0.4817856483 0.631046649
61          61    D -0.5035856373 0.1811743 -2.7795649665 0.006725205
62          62    D -0.2319067976 0.1867166 -1.2420259286 0.217311321
63          63    D -0.1669423055 0.1874232 -0.8907236412 0.375318661
64          64    D  0.2543662439 0.1864179  1.3644948595 0.175543018
65          65    D  0.2384262418 0.1866327  1.2775155920 0.204462124
66          66    D -0.3868883969 0.1840774 -2.1017705044 0.038205356
67          67    D -0.1041345613 0.1878861 -0.5542429198 0.580675694
68          68    D -0.2979368330 0.1857581 -1.6038967921 0.112105133
69          69    D -0.0563216820 0.1880944 -0.2994331388 0.765250326
70          70    D  0.2527161013 0.1864408  1.3554765049 0.178477362
71          71    D -0.0674049402 0.1880572 -0.3584279551 0.720811342
72          72    D -0.1670487340 0.1874223 -0.8912960940 0.374994788
73          73    D  0.0596402439 0.1880839  0.3170938070 0.751859597
74          74    D -0.0546999448 0.1880992 -0.2908036535 0.771816262
75          75    D  0.2048137968 0.1870396  1.0950291528 0.276193417
76          76    D -0.0801218863 0.1880062 -0.4261660881 0.670943519
77          77    D  0.3308682547 0.1851885  1.7866567616 0.077409327
78          78    D  0.4175200553 0.1833932  2.2766393095 0.025013324
79          79    D  0.0311804541 0.1881540  0.1657177190 0.868722740
80          80    D  0.1653957366 0.1874372  0.8824060238 0.379783223
81          81    D -0.1215843506 0.1877792 -0.6474858917 0.518880884
82          82    D  0.3851074139 0.1841155  2.0916623410 0.039141347
83          83    D  0.1135260783 0.1878306  0.6044066639 0.546993153
84          84    D -0.1218559597 0.1877774 -0.6489385287 0.518020776
85          85    D -0.1215504808 0.1877794 -0.6473047503 0.518948384
86          86    D -0.1600224776 0.1874848 -0.8535223382 0.395548806
87          87    D  0.0074699045 0.1881789  0.0396957684 0.968416616
88          88    D  0.2277930860 0.1867682  1.2196565828 0.225522598
89          89    D  0.2684913623 0.1862156  1.4418303287 0.152548597
90          90    D  0.3559145472 0.1847140  1.9268415429 0.056925270
91          91    D -0.0755612484 0.1880255 -0.4018669980 0.688664660
92          92    D -0.0311500673 0.1881541 -0.1655561746 0.868847307
93          93    D -0.3423288144 0.1849758 -1.8506680889 0.067373269
94          94    D  0.0748689655 0.1880283  0.3981791576 0.691370269
95          95    D  0.1451316428 0.1876084  0.7735880659 0.441113169
96          96    D  0.0873918104 0.1879732  0.4649163447 0.643050166
97          97    D  0.2053484400 0.1870336  1.0979227161 0.274931517
98          98    D -0.1291998977 0.1877273 -0.6882319790 0.492937991
99          99    D  0.0710205716 0.1880436  0.3776814634 0.706533612
100        100    D -0.0816945451 0.1879993 -0.4345469791 0.664850422
101        101    D -0.1311338243 0.1877136 -0.6985846891 0.486504532
102        102    D  0.2469548229 0.1865195  1.3240157922 0.188581000
103        103    D  0.2986198875 0.1857469  1.6076707752 0.111240994
104        104    D  0.0929681305 0.1879459  0.4946536924 0.621951956
105        105    D  0.1851593228 0.1872485  0.9888425235 0.325274211
106        106    D -0.3477073468 0.1848734 -1.8807861808 0.063050321
107        107    D  0.0984996912 0.1879171  0.5241655489 0.601351416
108        108    D -0.0523515012 0.1881061 -0.2783084332 0.781434966
109        109    D -0.2757815567 0.1861069 -1.4818448942 0.141596119
110        110    D -0.1894422457 0.1872048 -1.0119517342 0.314087538
111        111    D  0.2221667928 0.1868374  1.1890918956 0.237404397
112        112    D -0.1608331634 0.1874777 -0.8578787356 0.393447053
113        113    D -0.0997348392 0.1879105 -0.5307571581 0.596826640
114        114    D  0.1361040904 0.1876775  0.7252021020 0.470057383
115        115    D  0.0520328409 0.1881070  0.2766130608 0.782699854
116        116    D  0.1501065345 0.1875685  0.8002758914 0.425525742
117        117    D -0.1817790581 0.1872823 -0.9706150659 0.334150989
118        118    D  0.0731611180 0.1880352  0.3890820368 0.698065087
119        119    D  0.3125074159 0.1855136  1.6845521457 0.095480828
120        120    D -0.0432054941 0.1881298 -0.2296579482 0.818844535
121        121    D  0.0309773050 0.1881544  0.1646377239 0.869572450
122        122    D  0.3181917246 0.1854150  1.7161053937 0.089344238
123        123    D -0.3460494101 0.1849051 -1.8714969158 0.064300944
124        124    D -0.0989195022 0.1879149 -0.5264058743 0.599818402
125        125    D -0.0294939418 0.1881568 -0.1567519407 0.875766944
126        126    D -0.0927777745 0.1879469 -0.4936383481 0.622742162
127        127    D  0.1595222538 0.1874892  0.8508345218 0.396947488
128        128    D -0.2177635068 0.1868903 -1.1651945662 0.247142847
129        129    D -0.1305685004 0.1877176 -0.6955581583 0.488472500
130        130    D  0.2651138279 0.1862650  1.4233151937 0.157930890
131        131    D -0.0584509715 0.1880877 -0.3107644176 0.756640699
132        132    D -0.0538269654 0.1881018 -0.2861586863 0.775372036
133        133    D  0.0838192466 0.1879898  0.4458712580 0.656719459
134        134    D  0.2838724897 0.1859827  1.5263379819 0.130171913
135        135    D  0.1025684060 0.1878949  0.5458817179 0.586441677
136        136    D  0.1976945881 0.1871177  1.0565251340 0.293335136
137        137    D  0.1086349403 0.1878601  0.5782756476 0.564469838
138        138    D  0.2244002645 0.1868101  1.2012211121 0.232585223
139        139    D  0.4397380767 0.1828625  2.4047471245 0.018090371
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884        884    D  0.2944990024 0.1858140  1.5849125485 0.116225673
885        885    D -0.0745133715 0.1880298 -0.3962849475 0.692779633
886        886    D  0.0652084985 0.1880651  0.3467337348 0.729534938
887        887    D -0.0335195900 0.1881499 -0.1781536326 0.858972013
888        888    D -0.0224426940 0.1881667 -0.1192702627 0.905305455
889        889    D -0.1664896678 0.1874273 -0.8882891129 0.376865584
890        890    D  0.5909769532 0.1784602  3.3115337892 0.001316998
891        891    D -0.0218383551 0.1881674 -0.1160580949 0.907845133
892        892    D -0.0211181133 0.1881683 -0.1122299300 0.910884800
893        893    D -0.0316066721 0.1881533 -0.1679836285 0.866943985
894        894    D  0.2360112624 0.1866641  1.2643636750 0.209340725
895        895    D  0.0202067228 0.1881693  0.1073858611 0.914702584
896        896    D  0.0972053478 0.1879240  0.5172587773 0.606196553
897        897    D -0.0338368887 0.1881493 -0.1798406007 0.857649719
898        898    D  0.1368965592 0.1876716  0.7294474650 0.467523701
899        899    D  0.0212196556 0.1881682  0.1127696353 0.910450392
900        900    D  0.0766647707 0.1880210  0.4077458859 0.684352857
901        901    D  0.0085743504 0.1881784  0.0455650131 0.963751260
902        902    D  0.1055290596 0.1878782  0.5616886946 0.575650931
903        903    D  0.1543197076 0.1875336  0.8228910165 0.412812252
904        904    D -0.1390718236 0.1876553 -0.7411027172 0.460411466
905        905    D  0.0587802696 0.1880867  0.3125169262 0.755321062
906        906    D  0.3172105056 0.1854322  1.7106551046 0.090406008
907        907    D -0.3932926331 0.1839388 -2.1381707121 0.035123801
908        908    D -0.1412110497 0.1876390 -0.7525678629 0.453531278
909        909    D  0.2245712383 0.1868080  1.2021498310 0.232246988
910        910    D  0.0626569963 0.1880739  0.3331509309 0.739732056
911        911    D -0.1282632754 0.1877338 -0.6832188553 0.496104913
912        912    D  0.0581146288 0.1880888  0.3089744481 0.758002066
913        913    D -0.2315046154 0.1867216 -1.2398381399 0.218001644
914        914    D -0.1718663078 0.1873778 -0.9172180202 0.361402478
915        915    D  0.4089897339 0.1835892  2.2277441035 0.028317181
916        916    D -0.0872660208 0.1879738 -0.4642456827 0.643501908
917        917    D  0.2633188541 0.1862910  1.4134813805 0.160682909
918        918    D -0.2213909180 0.1868468 -1.1848796242 0.238974394
919        919    D  0.2149945247 0.1869230  1.1501771713 0.252889955
920        920    D -0.1774972003 0.1873242 -0.9475399377 0.345694579
921        921    D  0.0213194877 0.1881681  0.1133002523 0.910030824
922        922    D -0.2016707441 0.1870744 -1.0780240968 0.283836541
923        923    D -0.3463593129 0.1848992 -1.8732329086 0.064035673
924        924    D -0.2317327569 0.1867188 -1.2410791610 0.217600970
925        925    D -0.3075086185 0.1855989 -1.6568453312 0.100861368
926        926    D  0.4630190018 0.1822752  2.5402199170 0.012718515
927        927    D -0.1734273326 0.1873631 -0.9256214180 0.356945244
928        928    D  0.1921122418 0.1871771  1.0263664002 0.307446097
929        929    D  0.3888379663 0.1840355  2.1128427157 0.037277424
930        930    D  0.3953414818 0.1838940  2.1498333519 0.034188487
931        931    D -0.0906533658 0.1879574 -0.4823079613 0.630682670
932        932    D  0.1209587836 0.1877833  0.6441403533 0.521179662
933        933    D  0.1551751232 0.1875264  0.8274841984 0.409976032
934        934    D  0.3775654046 0.1842748  2.0489257938 0.043144113
935        935    D  0.0805858871 0.1880042  0.4286387094 0.669155265
936        936    D -0.0001591084 0.1881804 -0.0008455101 0.999327112
937        937    D  0.0965043981 0.1879277  0.5135187408 0.608748554
938        938    D -0.0519185103 0.1881073 -0.2760047917 0.783128431
939        939    D  0.0312188548 0.1881539  0.1659218682 0.868579376
940        940    D  0.0505260212 0.1881111  0.2685966344 0.788828090
941        941    D  0.1645808080 0.1874445  0.8780239950 0.382146048
942        942    D -0.1675343473 0.1874178 -0.8939082016 0.373563912
943        943    D  0.1803669101 0.1872963  0.9630032216 0.337930051
944        944    D -0.1159649102 0.1878154 -0.6174408490 0.538412148
945        945    D  0.1477183352 0.1875878  0.7874622588 0.432911728
946        946    D -0.0003544457 0.1881804 -0.0018835423 0.998501094
947        947    D  0.2627148548 0.1862997  1.4101732776 0.161837369
948        948    D  0.0131644365 0.1881757  0.0699582257 0.944382045
949        949    D  0.2223357512 0.1868353  1.1900092654 0.236951568
950        950    D -0.0048433990 0.1881797 -0.0257381533 0.979518601
951        951    D  0.0244222058 0.1881642  0.1297919867 0.896998323
952        952    D -0.1962438782 0.1871333 -1.0486848813 0.297168827
953        953    D  0.0597692882 0.1880835  0.3177806126 0.751379819
954        954    D -0.0754276834 0.1880261 -0.4011554747 0.689179248
955        955    D -0.1939764000 0.1871574 -1.0364343668 0.302720215
956        956    D  0.2692785872 0.1862040  1.4461479006 0.151333917
957        957    D  0.0577296755 0.1880900  0.3069258167 0.759563027
958        958    D  0.0368278373 0.1881436  0.1957432376 0.845225931
959        959    D -0.1843197442 0.1872570 -0.9843143272 0.327390066
960        960    D -0.0740925273 0.1880315 -0.3940432130 0.694428504
961        961    D  0.2523700149 0.1864456  1.3535854955 0.178988196
962        962    D -0.0695058196 0.1880493 -0.3696147871 0.712481503
963        963    D  0.2639323589 0.1862821  1.4168420208 0.160020694
964        964    D -0.1295452377 0.1877248 -0.6900804894 0.491824752
965        965    D -0.1163097194 0.1878132 -0.6192839173 0.537220818
966        966    D -0.1194344938 0.1877932 -0.6359893532 0.526266899
967        967    D -0.1818610577 0.1872815 -0.9710571170 0.333974991
968        968    D  0.2699424451 0.1861942  1.4497894882 0.150394826
969        969    D  0.0776819375 0.1880167  0.4131651065 0.680394951
970        970    D  0.1243453088 0.1877607  0.6622541797 0.509385099
971        971    D -0.1700123354 0.1873951 -0.9072401625 0.366577972
972        972    D  0.3378920046 0.1850590  1.8258607013 0.071217264
973        973    D -0.0543077219 0.1881004 -0.2887166822 0.773408882
974        974    D -0.0730340845 0.1880357 -0.3884054122 0.698576817
975        975    D  0.1000386096 0.1879088  0.5323783962 0.595800831
976        976    D  0.0098591257 0.1881777  0.0523926247 0.958331952
977        977    D  0.2722372411 0.1861601  1.4623820239 0.146843089
978        978    D  0.0905166497 0.1879581  0.4815788603 0.631181789
979        979    D  0.0357434323 0.1881457  0.1899773735 0.849751598
980        980    D  0.1145542049 0.1878243  0.6099010368 0.543359456
981        981    D -0.0755271118 0.1880257 -0.4016851460 0.688804464
982        982    D  0.3042643656 0.1856534  1.6388837073 0.104652038
983        983    D  0.3512700620 0.1848047  1.9007640093 0.060348489
984        984    D -0.3619354086 0.1845945 -1.9607047573 0.052760702
985        985    D -0.0643086052 0.1880682 -0.3419429752 0.733129923
986        986    D -0.1248011166 0.1877576 -0.6646927040 0.507869302
987        987    D  0.1221635701 0.1877753  0.6505837605 0.516848331
988        988    D -0.3229263433 0.1853315 -1.7424257492 0.084918592
989        989    D  0.1608528964 0.1874776  0.8579847817 0.393028671
990        990    D  0.3947600648 0.1839068  2.1465228910 0.034445357
991        991    D  0.0949213739 0.1879359  0.5050730497 0.614642742
992        992    D -0.0145640428 0.1881746 -0.0773964230 0.938473668
993        993    D  0.2461230992 0.1865308  1.3194772590 0.190160515
994        994    D -0.2246358607 0.1868072 -1.2025008644 0.232085504
995        995    D  0.0287986601 0.1881579  0.1530558213 0.878676812
996        996    D -0.0843542311 0.1879874 -0.4487229027 0.654628605
997        997    D -0.1017955399 0.1878992 -0.5417560632 0.589288478
998        998    D  0.0079708015 0.1881787  0.0423576288 0.966305745
999        999    D  0.1881300175 0.1872183  1.0048696697 0.317508581
1000      1000    D  0.0571169562 0.1880919  0.3036651493 0.762048710
         conf.low    conf.high       df outcome
1    -0.257401024  0.488083478 97.56246       Y
2    -0.554674724  0.189378531 90.45119       Y
3    -0.073288075  0.664391579 95.27674       Y
4    -0.440055266  0.306389531 97.47826       Y
5    -0.107464262  0.631974126 97.99182       Y
6    -0.210973317  0.533260089 96.37068       Y
7    -0.271537380  0.474989463 90.56870       Y
8    -0.401305227  0.345489818 97.96644       Y
9    -0.493480127  0.252286592 93.41292       Y
10   -0.145718265  0.595690516 97.99895       Y
11   -0.362562959  0.384773547 93.26586       Y
12   -0.693798673  0.041826806 95.16538       Y
13   -0.204739627  0.539893030 90.37705       Y
14   -0.527647679  0.216683328 97.35870       Y
15   -0.594951460  0.146540747 97.52113       Y
16   -0.508850592  0.236512474 93.14713       Y
17   -0.526772479  0.217758439 95.65075       Y
18   -0.152056350  0.589653213 97.96544       Y
19   -0.192007205  0.551895790 92.81085       Y
20   -0.387839713  0.359305154 95.03726       Y
21   -0.375969435  0.371179066 95.21183       Y
22   -0.244783597  0.500449077 96.77883       Y
23   -0.306356704  0.441228084 86.85719       Y
24   -0.332942221  0.413773597 97.83283       Y
25   -0.722333946  0.012761660 81.27898       Y
26   -0.240451711  0.504559949 97.84388       Y
27   -0.204444957  0.539951255 92.48379       Y
28   -0.306919712  0.440241176 90.59252       Y
29   -0.199439220  0.544748328 92.74930       Y
30   -0.452457652  0.293761327 97.77840       Y
31   -0.502188916  0.242974485 96.98437       Y
32   -0.320018098  0.426728071 96.17703       Y
33   -0.411021229  0.335977409 95.20102       Y
34   -0.633869087  0.105488891 97.67129       Y
35   -0.495022521  0.250696371 93.47787       Y
36   -0.313423825  0.433077285 97.88772       Y
37   -0.435283081  0.311349481 96.24445       Y
38   -0.203784596  0.540359218 94.72147       Y
39   -0.401225064  0.345607458 97.58099       Y
40   -0.292844998  0.453471878 96.59542       Y
41   -0.739572029 -0.007211213 91.57912       Y
42   -0.457392280  0.289110153 94.07766       Y
43   -0.061431591  0.676272203 87.82609       Y
44   -0.548735064  0.194921347 96.38157       Y
45   -0.536494857  0.207919598 93.48983       Y
46   -0.435753520  0.311096984 94.04070       Y
47   -0.434606175  0.311875516 97.88083       Y
48   -0.466249781  0.279713933 97.74096       Y
49   -0.427305494  0.319482825 95.68842       Y
50   -0.309760388  0.436878035 95.96795       Y
51   -0.489080676  0.256798365 93.42708       Y
52   -0.248041145  0.497748713 92.13334       Y
53   -0.524301240  0.220868138 90.47374       Y
54   -0.626248642  0.113523185 97.97721       Y
55   -0.652100589  0.087170534 88.16199       Y
56   -0.318685783  0.428298958 93.66225       Y
57   -0.090561513  0.648571460 91.26777       Y
58   -0.349905192  0.396955412 97.53505       Y
59   -0.602504569  0.138713149 96.42495       Y
60   -0.282502880  0.463613731 96.71514       Y
61   -0.863908765 -0.143262510 83.39433       Y
62   -0.602628120  0.138814524 94.17082       Y
63   -0.539005062  0.205120451 95.38574       Y
64   -0.115582966  0.624315454 97.80989       Y
65   -0.131976820  0.608829304 97.23435       Y
66   -0.752303419 -0.021473375 95.50193       Y
67   -0.476990354  0.268721231 97.96073       Y
68   -0.666783229  0.070909563 93.62386       Y
69   -0.429637580  0.316994216 96.98606       Y
70   -0.117412232  0.622844434 95.06809       Y
71   -0.440703168  0.305893287 95.84444       Y
72   -0.539070405  0.204972937 96.17396       Y
73   -0.313693636  0.432974124 96.19657       Y
74   -0.427978528  0.318578638 97.96278       Y
75   -0.166369877  0.575997470 97.79537       Y
76   -0.453324639  0.293080866 95.73258       Y
77   -0.037114244  0.698850753 88.70385       Y
78    0.053519231  0.781520879 96.65965       Y
79   -0.342235823  0.404596731 97.35835       Y
80   -0.206711168  0.537502641 95.06011       Y
81   -0.494378415  0.251209714 94.89505       Y
82    0.019583546  0.750631282 94.83046       Y
83   -0.259294816  0.486346972 96.40401       Y
84   -0.494877997  0.251166078 90.54252       Y
85   -0.494193249  0.251092287 97.98502       Y
86   -0.532298870  0.212253915 93.59699       Y
87   -0.365975565  0.380915374 97.77709       Y
88   -0.142842871  0.598429043 97.98926       Y
89   -0.101062425  0.638045149 97.68481       Y
90   -0.010690459  0.722519553 97.02282       Y
91   -0.448732703  0.297610207 97.14718       Y
92   -0.404535930  0.342235796 97.99489       Y
93   -0.709625961  0.024968332 93.54376       Y
94   -0.298299595  0.448037526 97.32303       Y
95   -0.227363265  0.517626550 94.11685       Y
96   -0.285759184  0.460542805 95.45574       Y
97   -0.165818891  0.576515771 97.88952       Y
98   -0.501753923  0.243354127 97.67687       Y
99   -0.302429814  0.444470957 92.37838       Y
100  -0.454791730  0.291402639 97.61037       Y
101  -0.503753657  0.241486008 95.77150       Y
102  -0.123192062  0.617101708 97.89591       Y
103  -0.070155967  0.667395742 94.57045       Y
104  -0.280005415  0.465941676 97.97823       Y
105  -0.186618375  0.556937021 94.16855       Y
106  -0.714706367  0.019291674 95.42524       Y
107  -0.274433456  0.471432838 97.62932       Y
108  -0.426224487  0.321521485 87.13496       Y
109  -0.645113505  0.093550391 97.81214       Y
110  -0.561008438  0.182123947 96.66136       Y
111  -0.148812503  0.593146089 93.81893       Y
112  -0.533757174  0.212090848 82.42707       Y
113  -0.472788066  0.273318388 94.92637       Y
114  -0.236338982  0.508547163 97.93150       Y
115  -0.321580895  0.425646577 91.68534       Y
116  -0.222211057  0.522424126 96.05871       Y
117  -0.553476619  0.189918503 97.12489       Y
118  -0.300019022  0.446341258 97.36522       Y
119  -0.055962016  0.680976848 91.56523       Y
120  -0.416623986  0.330212998 96.32593       Y
121  -0.342466821  0.404421431 96.79862       Y
122  -0.049819330  0.686202779 96.71792       Y
123  -0.713052106  0.020953286 96.64206       Y
124  -0.471919963  0.274080958 96.15451       Y
125  -0.402944592  0.343956708 96.76388       Y
126  -0.466073939  0.280518390 91.67763       Y
127  -0.212571044  0.531615552 97.43115       Y
128  -0.589257462  0.153730448 86.51538       Y
129  -0.503430602  0.242293601 91.28765       Y
130  -0.104683882  0.634911538 94.70416       Y
131  -0.431711801  0.314809858 97.85599       Y
132  -0.427197168  0.319543238 96.18022       Y
133  -0.289457511  0.457096004 93.64186       Y
134  -0.085240278  0.652985257 97.23883       Y
135  -0.270506067  0.475642879 93.90946       Y
136  -0.173651011  0.569040187 97.65185       Y
137  -0.264397227  0.481667107 93.39566       Y
138  -0.146357952  0.595158481 97.16949       Y
139   0.076785174  0.802690979 96.54811       Y
140  -0.320378040  0.426200477 97.95618       Y
141  -0.514695412  0.230550445 92.57918       Y
142  -0.445669708  0.300719899 97.17312       Y
143  -0.488188888  0.257259572 97.90736       Y
144  -0.460362605  0.286317182 91.89961       Y
145  -0.107199726  0.632358451 96.54741       Y
146  -0.537841532  0.206631300 92.49132       Y
147  -0.465064583  0.280932187 97.64635       Y
148  -0.627300705  0.112464112 97.43031       Y
149  -0.407565158  0.339222443 97.60678       Y
150  -0.430066910  0.316690070 95.67103       Y
151  -0.535941075  0.208079229 97.55892       Y
152  -0.388894514  0.358353630 93.99848       Y
153  -0.161359574  0.580865161 96.97026       Y
154  -0.436115825  0.310730154 94.03698       Y
155  -0.319180106  0.427651597 95.21879       Y
156  -0.220701658  0.523878896 96.12291       Y
157  -0.430110837  0.316434013 97.82274       Y
158  -0.451244687  0.295180064 95.89680       Y
159  -0.061752335  0.674956362 97.80744       Y
160  -0.393528342  0.354250946 88.99958       Y
161  -0.276178876  0.470081660 93.99871       Y
162  -0.464255407  0.281959385 95.60470       Y
163  -0.047265807  0.689360010 89.05240       Y
164  -0.283978236  0.462848147 90.15748       Y
165  -0.364965143  0.381947766 97.52980       Y
166  -0.405056449  0.341962437 95.44109       Y
167  -0.085809945  0.652620687 95.43078       Y
168  -0.649174838  0.089320612 96.94975       Y
169  -0.487017037  0.258469931 97.81291       Y
170  -0.561587108  0.182163009 90.61633       Y
171  -0.645456022  0.094330861 87.34750       Y
172  -0.200379059  0.543327811 97.97913       Y
173  -0.322143385  0.424461651 97.88393       Y
174  -0.299311305  0.447426073 93.47186       Y
175  -0.398035200  0.348960424 96.09832       Y
176  -0.210556526  0.533647463 96.52781       Y
177  -0.383276528  0.363618728 97.68617       Y
178  -0.334602126  0.412216372 96.91076       Y
179  -0.477478012  0.268254314 97.63113       Y
180  -0.230431685  0.514645869 94.17582       Y
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541  -0.209327618  0.536264913 83.65467       Y
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581  -0.662797118  0.075336128 92.01402       Y
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593   0.010568408  0.742123265 97.15931       Y
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621   0.063220018  0.791167410 88.51645       Y
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629  -0.277336812  0.468866547 94.79607       Y
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631   0.030218355  0.760577054 92.90860       Y
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633  -0.184356936  0.559114898 94.11104       Y
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636  -0.096675567  0.642558765 93.75209       Y
637  -0.508890890  0.236350470 94.28881       Y
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639  -0.313948446  0.432551622 97.96929       Y
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641  -0.547165934  0.196395487 97.96691       Y
642  -0.612719540  0.127803849 97.99413       Y
643  -0.010998170  0.722331894 95.97866       Y
644  -0.089708004  0.649016493 94.79247       Y
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646  -0.355129220  0.391788375 97.18705       Y
647  -0.578141302  0.164130772 97.76969       Y
648  -0.439248533  0.307861188 91.17834       Y
649  -0.596036484  0.145477554 96.75067       Y
650  -0.500341767  0.244946269 96.25195       Y
651  -0.260463841  0.485311316 95.33259       Y
652  -0.580261308  0.162267357 94.26055       Y
653  -0.280515953  0.465536835 96.97434       Y
654  -0.490948759  0.254800452 94.20698       Y
655  -0.518450811  0.226520916 94.03824       Y
656  -0.431204720  0.316142981 90.01750       Y
657  -0.564871392  0.177990974 97.74519       Y
658  -0.550098055  0.193660635 94.85002       Y
659  -0.227219673  0.517647676 95.29477       Y
660  -0.328905663  0.418873667 87.50032       Y
661  -0.475446779  0.271248416 89.01390       Y
662  -0.315753614  0.430949027 96.10466       Y
663  -0.323379798  0.423330678 96.92388       Y
664  -0.208816708  0.535194217 97.93220       Y
665  -0.439372390  0.307044816 97.86612       Y
666  -0.589252163  0.152596897 96.74304       Y
667  -0.614946216  0.126431761 88.88494       Y
668  -0.178529088  0.564625316 94.93524       Y
669  -0.590870752  0.150882635 96.91340       Y
670  -0.341117004  0.405771438 96.70257       Y
671  -0.347130063  0.399671351 97.99977       Y
672  -0.327649421  0.419158678 96.37129       Y
673  -0.359640196  0.387840922 91.83777       Y
674  -0.266490413  0.479207054 97.58048       Y
675  -0.441131719  0.305811476 92.45111       Y
676  -0.543777565  0.200980695 88.06094       Y
677  -0.572867202  0.169621125 97.99993       Y
678  -0.066609319  0.670954181 92.21025       Y
679  -0.473789990  0.272298887 94.88431       Y
680  -0.385089102  0.361800170 97.70482       Y
681  -0.259659678  0.486075863 95.53724       Y
682  -0.110724661  0.628892997 97.99582       Y
683  -0.532559092  0.212629803 87.88535       Y
684  -0.346805418  0.401158793 87.11505       Y
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686  -0.347507851  0.400229354 89.07536       Y
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688  -0.539195537  0.204999934 94.63758       Y
689  -0.349439964  0.397559527 96.08451       Y
690  -0.352239191  0.395461414 89.60768       Y
691  -0.536470206  0.208804224 86.05659       Y
692  -0.339057061  0.407787906 96.99827       Y
693  -0.046018290  0.689784281 96.31913       Y
694  -0.549873676  0.193821700 95.55357       Y
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696  -0.066282511  0.670734497 97.62020       Y
697  -0.107041337  0.632377163 97.95287       Y
698  -0.587002912  0.155024089 96.04902       Y
699  -0.380202490  0.366847048 96.15985       Y
700  -0.173473176  0.569495165 94.69800       Y
701  -0.599678497  0.142113740 92.32087       Y
702  -0.477455649  0.268560812 94.79104       Y
703  -0.623621074  0.116514523 95.82162       Y
704  -0.227966757  0.516753616 97.04440       Y
705  -0.292997191  0.453983719 90.24032       Y
706  -0.442800748  0.304083639 92.76710       Y
707  -0.249562911  0.495821806 96.52594       Y
708  -0.580247240  0.161910887 97.94318       Y
709  -0.112283928  0.627543984 96.65156       Y
710  -0.447582420  0.299897431 86.91737       Y
711  -0.124946797  0.615474393 97.50587       Y
712  -0.631972745  0.107566597 96.96386       Y
713  -0.403772245  0.343286946 95.12738       Y
714  -0.660342196  0.077550424 95.81119       Y
715   0.082536369  0.807809727 97.60408       Y
716  -0.296786027  0.449493579 97.66962       Y
717  -0.254746437  0.490802282 96.20758       Y
718  -0.545468136  0.198225047 97.28440       Y
719  -0.105832503  0.633793707 95.04600       Y
720  -0.586784496  0.155155188 97.02809       Y
721  -0.463822546  0.282258587 97.03398       Y
722  -0.416862160  0.330556484 90.77598       Y
723  -0.365410299  0.382365467 89.32324       Y
724  -0.195781274  0.548207784 93.35900       Y
725  -0.639595387  0.099563705 96.22306       Y
726  -0.061854729  0.675416812 92.07504       Y
727  -0.222085919  0.522368795 97.90796       Y
728  -0.516130337  0.228976434 93.45712       Y
729  -0.352390931  0.394477664 97.57575       Y
730  -0.309725482  0.436990223 95.18621       Y
731  -0.435718558  0.312048553 86.00823       Y
732  -0.660626691  0.077285826 95.43353       Y
733  -0.578362771  0.164055171 96.19223       Y
734  -0.258332196  0.487172455 97.59028       Y
735  -0.507553454  0.238138727 90.50556       Y
736  -0.285155710  0.461521600 91.72058       Y
737  -0.432370707  0.314129118 97.99605       Y
738  -0.170679291  0.571871799 97.80960       Y
739  -0.567253505  0.175484027 97.97524       Y
740  -0.284197922  0.461844352 97.83136       Y
741  -0.248119748  0.497300386 95.77224       Y
742  -0.123267502  0.617205115 96.03429       Y
743  -0.242155800  0.503269963 94.09591       Y
744  -0.323882117  0.422988740 95.34956       Y
745   0.210020711  0.921618439 97.93018       Y
746  -0.312923477  0.433758055 95.95623       Y
747  -0.401145948  0.345824718 96.17314       Y
748  -0.211874507  0.533213658 88.53484       Y
749  -0.082949353  0.655449478 93.99600       Y
750  -0.551009202  0.192409699 97.88722       Y
751  -0.498393549  0.247616506 90.00552       Y
752  -0.337628470  0.409786006 91.36023       Y
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754  -0.268343118  0.478195129 89.83317       Y
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756  -0.131514682  0.609258988 97.33197       Y
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758  -0.602563294  0.139472365 88.87956       Y
759  -0.700505988  0.035114936 90.58589       Y
760  -0.678270272  0.058338700 96.48354       Y
761  -0.291568711  0.454597419 97.93888       Y
762  -0.091624353  0.647116825 95.78664       Y
763  -0.329735693  0.417142196 95.86611       Y
764  -0.559231920  0.183845499 97.97560       Y
765  -0.441903358  0.304775150 94.86025       Y
766  -0.128781871  0.611869614 97.15365       Y
767  -0.289252861  0.458096005 86.51030       Y
768  -0.763674207 -0.032930287 87.13023       Y
769  -0.506016890  0.239026485 97.08403       Y
770  -0.272845247  0.473788391 89.86249       Y
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772  -0.321534590  0.425064623 97.87461       Y
773   0.018998386  0.749803229 97.97113       Y
774  -0.535854337  0.208158166 97.67115       Y
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781  -0.235394552  0.509705245 95.42636       Y
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785  -0.385235827  0.361626191 97.98580       Y
786  -0.338271435  0.408488380 97.82388       Y
787  -0.201799131  0.542901464 88.82326       Y
788  -0.568725505  0.174036585 97.06920       Y
789  -0.297711843  0.448583212 97.66504       Y
790  -0.225092880  0.519466595 97.80373       Y
791  -0.366604919  0.380774561 92.93373       Y
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794  -0.518136043  0.227345223 89.50856       Y
795  -0.267067971  0.478604878 97.97935       Y
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797   0.026186847  0.756403554 97.96855       Y
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799  -0.445919241  0.300480910 97.02501       Y
800  -0.516047842  0.228611950 97.89409       Y
801  -0.490601537  0.254779090 97.97325       Y
802  -0.748658764 -0.017728698 97.72162       Y
803  -0.425466330  0.321197370 97.16110       Y
804  -0.537495621  0.206433613 97.91656       Y
805  -0.116619495  0.623372066 97.40477       Y
806  -0.369347722  0.378056438 92.73320       Y
807  -0.157470529  0.584578496 96.98484       Y
808  -0.218319124  0.526408229 93.86945       Y
809  -0.585267156  0.156732918 97.14963       Y
810  -0.315886216  0.430640299 97.94546       Y
811  -0.179105261  0.563781232 97.97543       Y
812  -0.355144075  0.391959397 95.30273       Y
813  -0.363254146  0.383688584 97.18487       Y
814  -0.515170505  0.230052618 92.65224       Y
815  -0.345716952  0.401120266 97.53879       Y
816  -0.477310905  0.268458525 97.28882       Y
817  -0.453843216  0.292802122 93.32290       Y
818  -0.583442973  0.158594335 97.65005       Y
819  -0.299812179  0.446499573 97.84088       Y
820  -0.045482975  0.690378520 95.31411       Y
821  -0.291177287  0.455084911 96.86153       Y
822  -0.120966869  0.619233497 97.64355       Y
823  -0.505927578  0.239132683 96.93893       Y
824   0.014161037  0.745655369 94.73938       Y
825  -0.340184437  0.406717447 96.49784       Y
826  -0.074460837  0.663249186 95.72153       Y
827  -0.691069818  0.045596454 87.67441       Y
828  -0.609797039  0.131096289 95.84687       Y
829  -0.331775389  0.415425685 92.89053       Y
830  -0.528790893  0.215927576 93.18711       Y
831  -0.268244244  0.478309556 89.67503       Y
832  -0.135879830  0.605055989 97.94030       Y
833  -0.269523289  0.476979180 90.38983       Y
834  -0.445889057  0.300543010 96.70491       Y
835  -0.514616565  0.230103534 97.73465       Y
836  -0.351887968  0.395524697 92.19444       Y
837  -0.361400769  0.385510975 97.46004       Y
838  -0.406430395  0.340634541 94.89272       Y
839  -0.425029177  0.321991691 93.67689       Y
840  -0.650440729  0.088100859 95.69808       Y
841  -0.159459610  0.582820151 95.51354       Y
842  -0.324967086  0.421795723 96.55768       Y
843  -0.248390754  0.497337086 92.80929       Y
844  -0.341517631  0.405768670 92.81549       Y
845  -0.228121551  0.516543235 97.68114       Y
846  -0.074373624  0.663492412 94.06205       Y
847  -0.162089147  0.580351712 95.06544       Y
848  -0.568103332  0.175344430 90.82911       Y
849  -0.208354714  0.536157439 92.69211       Y
850  -0.653852782  0.084267775 97.74346       Y
851  -0.213205208  0.531500017 92.43800       Y
852  -0.397855521  0.349595242 91.73714       Y
853  -0.364490129  0.382780875 93.93332       Y
854  -0.206023148  0.538041865 96.33391       Y
855  -0.228068316  0.516635605 97.24998       Y
856  -0.245545828  0.499658030 97.29633       Y
857  -0.369785331  0.377595511 92.95638       Y
858  -0.573378308  0.169250725 96.33957       Y
859  -0.445173493  0.301702592 92.50615       Y
860  -0.088215494  0.650463192 94.35834       Y
861  -0.307848953  0.438600184 97.64905       Y
862  -0.296145446  0.450137311 97.52627       Y
863  -0.303865107  0.442879175 94.08191       Y
864  -0.316475916  0.430052854 97.99772       Y
865  -0.545108225  0.199345773 90.22786       Y
866  -0.075371322  0.662538873 94.24246       Y
867  -0.268558469  0.477586403 93.53127       Y
868  -0.183691062  0.559401304 97.74913       Y
869  -0.452420657  0.293811747 97.64597       Y
870  -0.333227993  0.413547985 97.23028       Y
871  -0.358629857  0.388389196 96.27571       Y
872  -0.464300926  0.281803898 96.69683       Y
873  -0.321999552  0.424725598 96.61867       Y
874  -0.341847118  0.405438087 92.84717       Y
875  -0.465933550  0.280012825 97.98739       Y
876  -0.530093449  0.214645061 92.58292       Y
877  -0.403991927  0.342811527 97.70173       Y
878  -0.282696904  0.464377564 87.77804       Y
879  -0.340221790  0.406726138 96.03259       Y
880  -0.245717721  0.499503076 97.16726       Y
881  -0.375127767  0.371751144 97.96268       Y
882  -0.390317998  0.356548415 97.77552       Y
883  -0.854842308 -0.134500510 95.05407       Y
884  -0.074268310  0.663266315 97.46291       Y
885  -0.447778536  0.298751793 95.41908       Y
886  -0.308001465  0.438418462 97.97932       Y
887  -0.406921614  0.339882434 97.48510       Y
888  -0.395854532  0.350969144 97.97674       Y
889  -0.539088443  0.206109107 85.91030       Y
890   0.236645548  0.945308358 94.11181       Y
891  -0.395272982  0.351596272 97.53073       Y
892  -0.394820054  0.352583827 92.30612       Y
893  -0.405012931  0.341799587 97.53644       Y
894  -0.134793206  0.606815731 90.65095       Y
895  -0.353212863  0.393626309 97.92185       Y
896  -0.275946152  0.470356848 93.53936       Y
897  -0.407221589  0.339547811 97.82232       Y
898  -0.235681322  0.509474440 94.94693       Y
899  -0.352326107  0.394765418 95.30225       Y
900  -0.296473592  0.449803133 97.64621       Y
901  -0.364939407  0.382088108 96.35128       Y
902  -0.267456495  0.478514614 94.99656       Y
903  -0.218405884  0.527045299 87.29447       Y
904  -0.511489021  0.233345374 97.55067       Y
905  -0.314537293  0.432097832 96.63970       Y
906  -0.050915216  0.685336227 95.07409       Y
907  -0.758557746 -0.028027521 93.01861       Y
908  -0.513620305  0.231198206 97.04406       Y
909  -0.146215003  0.595357480 96.50500       Y
910  -0.310569595  0.435883587 97.99898       Y
911  -0.500885135  0.244358584 96.54406       Y
912  -0.315178455  0.431407713 97.22873       Y
913  -0.602056659  0.139047429 97.80952       Y
914  -0.543964753  0.200232138 92.93855       Y
915   0.044402083  0.773577385 92.69315       Y
916  -0.460296214  0.285764172 97.95119       Y
917  -0.106369676  0.633007385 97.99762       Y
918  -0.592253412  0.149471576 96.51782       Y
919  -0.155981387  0.585970436 97.29962       Y
920  -0.549236484  0.194242083 97.99109       Y
921  -0.352225584  0.394864559 95.31142       Y
922  -0.573208034  0.169866545 92.16155       Y
923  -0.713315391  0.020596765 97.37191       Y
924  -0.602367015  0.138901502 95.99072       Y
925  -0.675985417  0.060968180 94.67214       Y
926   0.101105177  0.824932826 93.95592       Y
927  -0.545302197  0.198447532 96.77535       Y
928  -0.179704266  0.563928749 90.77749       Y
929   0.023407628  0.754268304 93.53602       Y
930   0.030117793  0.760565171 92.10777       Y
931  -0.463735489  0.282428757 96.21077       Y
932  -0.252282686  0.494200253 86.96891       Y
933  -0.216971624  0.527321870 97.85836       Y
934   0.011874818  0.743255992 97.93078       Y
935  -0.292643409  0.453815183 95.12399       Y
936  -0.373632480  0.373314264 97.25943       Y
937  -0.276449076  0.469457872 97.64263       Y
938  -0.425234222  0.321397202 97.52055       Y
939  -0.342428041  0.404865750 92.80321       Y
940  -0.322967972  0.424020014 94.09857       Y
941  -0.207543939  0.536705555 94.99453       Y
942  -0.539465012  0.204396317 97.87254       Y
943  -0.191343804  0.552077625 97.42614       Y
944  -0.488796227  0.256866406 95.58493       Y
945  -0.224543618  0.519980288 97.99974       Y
946  -0.373930705  0.373221814 95.17804       Y
947  -0.107258494  0.632688204 92.63764       Y
948  -0.360676962  0.387005835 90.04292       Y
949  -0.148487691  0.593159193 96.85382       Y
950  -0.378286357  0.368599559 97.86603       Y
951  -0.349006195  0.397850606 97.52645       Y
952  -0.568085003  0.175597246 88.80564       Y
953  -0.313838267  0.433376843 90.94944       Y
954  -0.448560560  0.297705193 97.97312       Y
955  -0.565694797  0.177741997 91.85957       Y
956  -0.100248169  0.638805344 97.76944       Y
957  -0.315614693  0.431074044 96.22866       Y
958  -0.336646505  0.410302179 95.75392       Y
959  -0.555935072  0.187295583 97.79129       Y
960  -0.447361815  0.299176760 95.40408       Y
961  -0.117633799  0.622373829 97.81694       Y
962  -0.442768457  0.303756818 96.24989       Y
963  -0.106207194  0.634071911 88.98404       Y
964  -0.502222587  0.243132112 95.07008       Y
965  -0.489195842  0.256576403 94.41699       Y
966  -0.492107279  0.253238292 97.93197       Y
967  -0.553640889  0.189918774 95.41794       Y
968  -0.099676930  0.639561820 95.45889       Y
969  -0.295465552  0.450829427 97.28082       Y
970  -0.248326815  0.497017432 96.60778       Y
971  -0.542044064  0.202019393 94.89174       Y
972  -0.029805066  0.705589075 89.19848       Y
973  -0.427593493  0.318978049 97.86031       Y
974  -0.446286173  0.300218004 95.91606       Y
975  -0.273372100  0.473449319 88.31621       Y
976  -0.363988178  0.383706429 90.01099       Y
977  -0.097201562  0.641676044 97.78684       Y
978  -0.282493111  0.463526411 97.72707       Y
979  -0.338004025  0.409490890 90.65664       Y
980  -0.258244602  0.487353012 96.59656       Y
981  -0.448733048  0.297678825 96.44619       Y
982  -0.064457993  0.672986724 92.02546       Y
983  -0.015588673  0.718128797 95.50293       Y
984  -0.728270706  0.004399889 97.71351       Y
985  -0.437548870  0.308931660 97.47735       Y
986  -0.497582821  0.247980587 94.29962       Y
987  -0.250503270  0.494830410 97.31388       Y
988  -0.691220599  0.045367913 88.22544       Y
989  -0.211266576  0.532972369 96.41722       Y
990   0.029536166  0.759983964 92.58593       Y
991  -0.278036530  0.467879278 97.89154       Y
992  -0.388218149  0.359090063 93.44413       Y
993  -0.124156667  0.616402865 95.61295       Y
994  -0.595378556  0.146106834 97.37339       Y
995  -0.344711190  0.402308510 95.61100       Y
996  -0.457439189  0.288730727 97.36995       Y
997  -0.474950097  0.271359017 92.54924       Y
998  -0.365787031  0.381728634 91.65427       Y
999  -0.183538396  0.559798431 95.13806       Y
1000 -0.316304512  0.430538425 94.76730       Y

Visualize

Visualize

Visualize

Visualize

mean(abs(null_df$estimate) >= abs(obs))
[1] 0.2

Normal-approximation inference

mean(abs(null_df$estimate) >= abs(obs)) # randomization inference p-value
[1] 0.2

Compare with:

difference_in_means(Y ~ D, data = experiment) %>% tidy()  %>% .$p.value
[1] 0.1908766
  • Normal approximation compares test statistic to t-distribution

  • Based on “weak” null hypothesis \(H_0: E[\tau_i] = 0\)

  • vs. randomization inference sharp null \(H_0 : \tau_i = Y_i(1) - Y_i(0) = 0 \forall i\)

Using control variables?

Difference in means gives you an unbiased estimate of the average treatment effect in experiments

But no guarantee for statistical precision

Can use covariates and regression to make standard errors smaller

…and you should! Experiments are expensive

Example

Data from US Wave 2

# Load data from course github
load(url("http://gustavodiaz.org/ps403/data/Manekin_Mitts.rdata"))

# Clean up
w2 = us_survey_wave2 %>% 
  # Redo factors so that they don't have too many levels
  mutate(
    white = ifelse(race == "White / Caucasian", 1, 0)
  ) %>% 
  select(Y = police_action_required, # outcome 11 pt scale
         Z = black, # treatment: race of protesters
         # covariates
         pol_views, white, female, partyID
  ) %>% 
  drop_na # drop incomplete cases, if any
       Y Z pol_views white female partyID
1      9 1         3     1      1       R
2      5 1         2     1      1       D
3      1 0         5     1      1       R
4     10 0         3     1      0       R
5      6 0         3     1      1       I
6      1 0         4     1      0       I
7      6 1         3     1      1       I
8      4 0         5     1      1       R
9      5 1         5     1      1       R
10     5 0         3     1      1       D
11     5 1         1     1      1       I
12     0 0         1     1      1       D
13     0 1         0     0      0       D
14     7 1         5     1      1       R
15     4 1         5     1      0       I
16     3 1         5     1      0       I
17     1 1         2     1      1       I
18     1 1         4     1      1       I
19     0 1         2     1      1       R
20     1 1         6     1      1       R
21     8 0         4     1      0       R
22     3 0         3     1      1       D
23     2 1         3     1      0       I
24     5 1         2     0      0       D
27     4 0         2     1      0       D
28     0 0         3     1      1       I
29     8 1         3     1      1       D
30     5 1         3     1      0       R
31     0 0         1     0      1       D
32     4 1         5     1      0       R
33     5 1         4     1      0       I
34     8 1         3     1      0       R
35     5 0         3     1      0       I
36     1 1         5     1      1       I
37     1 0         6     1      1       R
38     5 0         1     1      1       D
39     2 0         3     1      1       R
40     1 1         6     1      1       R
41     5 0         3     0      0       I
42     2 0         1     1      1       D
43    10 0         3     1      1       D
44    10 1         5     1      1       R
46    10 0         0     1      0       R
47     8 1         0     1      0       D
48     7 1         5     1      0       R
49     5 1         3     0      0       D
50     4 1         3     1      1       R
52    10 1         6     1      0       R
53     3 1         3     1      0       I
54     5 1         1     1      0       R
55     3 0         6     1      0       R
57     1 1         3     0      0       D
58     2 1         2     1      1       I
59     6 1         6     1      1       D
60     0 0         5     0      0       D
61    10 1         0     0      0       R
62    10 0         3     0      0       R
64     4 1         3     1      1       D
66     0 0         0     1      0       D
68    10 0         0     1      1       D
69     4 1         2     1      0       D
70    10 1         6     1      1       R
71     8 0         5     1      0       R
72     4 0         3     0      0       I
74     7 1         5     1      1       D
75    10 1         3     1      0       I
76     6 1         1     1      0       R
77     6 1         2     1      0       D
78     7 1         2     1      1       D
79     6 0         1     0      0       R
80     8 0         2     0      0       I
82     4 0         2     0      0       D
83     0 1         5     0      0       D
85     1 1         1     1      1       D
87    10 1         3     1      1       R
89     2 0         1     1      1       D
90     6 1         6     1      0       R
91     7 1         1     1      1       D
92     8 0         6     1      1       R
93     0 1         3     1      1       I
94     5 0         1     0      1       D
95     7 1         1     1      0       D
96     6 0         1     1      1       D
97     2 1         3     1      1       I
99     4 0         1     1      0       R
100    8 1         4     1      1       R
102    9 1         5     1      0       R
103    8 1         5     0      1       D
104    2 0         3     0      0       I
105    0 0         0     1      1       D
109    0 0         1     1      0       D
110    0 1         0     1      1       D
111    0 1         0     1      1       D
112    5 1         3     0      1       R
113    9 1         3     1      0       I
114    5 1         3     1      0       R
115   10 0         0     1      1       R
116    3 1         3     1      1       D
117    7 0         4     1      1       R
118    5 1         3     1      1       R
119   10 0         3     1      0       R
120    5 0         5     1      0       R
121    5 0         4     1      0       R
123    8 1         4     1      1       I
125    0 1         3     1      0       D
126    2 1         3     0      1       D
127    1 1         3     1      1       I
128    9 0         1     0      1       D
129    2 0         5     1      1       R
130    3 1         5     1      1       R
131    3 0         3     0      1       D
132    4 1         3     1      1       I
134    0 1         3     1      0       R
136    5 0         3     0      1       D
137    5 1         6     1      0       R
138   10 1         5     1      0       I
139    6 0         5     0      0       D
140    1 1         3     1      1       D
142    7 0         4     1      0       R
144    0 0         0     1      1       I
145    5 1         0     0      0       R
147    2 1         2     1      1       I
148   10 1         4     1      0       R
149    3 1         5     1      1       R
151   10 1         5     1      1       R
154    0 1         4     1      0       I
155   10 1         5     0      1       R
156    5 1         1     1      0       D
157    8 1         4     1      1       D
158   10 1         3     1      1       D
159    6 1         6     1      1       R
160    0 1         5     1      1       R
161    0 1         3     1      1       I
162    6 1         2     1      1       I
164    3 0         3     1      0       I
166    8 0         1     0      0       I
167    6 1         1     1      1       D
168    4 1         2     1      1       D
170   10 1         4     1      1       R
171   10 1         6     1      1       R
172    2 0         5     1      1       R
175    7 1         3     0      1       D
177   10 1         6     1      1       R
178    2 0         3     1      0       D
179    0 1         5     1      1       R
180    1 1         2     1      1       D
181   10 1         5     0      0       I
182    8 0         3     1      1       I
183    5 0         6     1      0       R
184    0 0         1     1      0       D
185    5 0         3     0      1       D
186    5 0         6     1      1       D
191    5 0         6     0      0       R
192    3 0         3     1      1       D
193    8 1         2     1      1       I
194    5 1         4     1      1       R
195    5 1         4     1      1       R
196    5 1         2     1      1       R
197    3 0         1     1      1       D
199    1 1         2     1      0       D
200    7 1         3     1      1       R
203    4 1         6     1      0       R
204    1 1         5     1      1       R
205    1 0         0     1      1       D
208    1 0         3     1      1       D
209   10 1         6     1      1       R
210    5 1         2     0      1       I
212    2 1         4     1      0       R
213    6 1         1     0      1       R
214    5 0         5     1      1       R
216    0 1         0     0      0       D
217    1 0         3     1      1       D
218    1 1         2     1      0       I
219   10 1         2     0      1       R
220    7 1         3     0      0       D
221    1 1         0     1      0       D
223    7 1         3     1      0       I
224    4 0         2     1      1       D
225    4 1         6     1      1       R
226   10 0         6     1      0       R
227    2 0         1     1      1       D
228    0 1         0     0      1       D
229    5 0         3     0      1       I
230    4 1         3     1      1       R
231    8 1         5     1      0       I
234    2 0         1     1      1       D
235    0 1         3     1      0       I
236    1 1         6     1      1       R
237    4 1         2     1      0       D
238    6 1         5     1      1       D
239    6 1         5     1      1       R
240    6 0         4     1      1       D
241    4 1         5     1      0       R
242    5 0         5     1      1       R
243    1 1         3     1      1       R
244    5 1         2     0      1       D
245    2 1         5     1      0       R
246    3 0         3     1      1       D
247    3 1         5     1      1       R
248    0 0         1     1      1       D
249    2 0         3     1      1       D
250    7 1         5     1      1       R
251    9 0         6     1      1       R
253    7 1         2     1      1       D
254    6 1         6     1      1       R
255    3 1         3     1      1       D
256    4 1         5     1      1       D
257    2 1         3     1      1       R
258    8 0         5     1      0       R
259    6 0         1     0      0       R
260    0 0         4     0      0       R
261    1 0         1     1      0       D
262    5 1         6     1      0       R
263    5 1         6     1      1       R
264    1 0         2     1      1       D
265    0 1         1     1      1       D
266    2 0         4     1      1       I
267    6 0         5     1      0       R
269    0 0         4     1      1       R
270    3 1         5     1      1       R
271    0 1         2     1      1       R
272    0 1         3     0      1       D
273    8 1         6     1      0       R
274    4 0         3     1      1       D
275    8 0         3     1      1       R
276    3 1         1     0      0       I
278    5 1         3     0      1       R
280    5 1         1     1      0       D
281    5 1         3     1      1       R
282    8 1         6     1      1       R
283    3 1         4     1      1       R
284    3 1         3     1      1       D
285    1 0         3     1      1       D
286    0 1         3     1      1       R
287    1 1         1     1      0       D
288   10 1         5     1      1       R
289    0 1         1     1      1       D
290   10 1         1     1      0       D
291    2 0         3     1      0       I
292    3 1         0     1      0       D
293    3 1         3     1      1       R
294   10 1         3     1      1       R
296    1 0         5     1      0       I
299    0 0         3     1      1       D
300    4 0         5     1      1       R
301    7 0         6     1      0       D
302    5 1         6     1      0       R
303    1 0         1     1      0       D
305    2 1         5     1      1       R
306   10 0         1     1      0       D
307   10 0         5     1      1       R
308    0 0         1     1      0       D
309    1 0         1     1      1       D
311   10 1         1     1      0       D
312    1 1         2     1      1       I
314    9 1         4     1      0       I
315    0 1         0     1      0       D
316    2 1         5     1      1       I
317    3 0         1     1      1       D
320    5 1         4     1      1       I
321    1 1         3     1      0       I
322   10 1         0     1      0       R
324    8 1         6     1      1       R
325    5 1         1     1      1       D
327    0 0         1     1      1       D
328   10 1         5     1      0       R
329    1 0         5     1      0       R
330    2 1         3     1      1       R
331    5 0         0     0      0       D
332    8 1         2     1      0       D
333    2 1         3     1      0       I
334    7 0         3     1      1       I
335    2 0         1     1      0       I
336    2 1         1     1      0       D
337    4 1         5     1      1       R
338    3 1         2     1      1       D
340    2 0         1     1      1       D
342    9 1         3     1      1       I
343    5 1         1     1      1       D
345    8 0         3     1      1       R
346    4 1         5     0      1       D
347    5 1         1     0      1       D
348   10 1         0     1      1       D
349    1 0         5     1      1       R
350    6 1         3     1      1       I
351    1 0         2     1      1       I
352    1 0         5     1      1       R
353    8 0         1     1      0       D
354    0 0         3     0      1       D
355   10 1         3     1      0       I
356    1 1         5     1      1       I
358   10 1         6     1      0       R
359    0 0         1     1      1       D
361    5 0         1     0      0       D
362    5 0         3     1      0       I
363    9 0         5     1      1       R
364   10 1         3     1      1       R
366    7 1         3     1      0       I
367    1 0         4     1      1       D
368    2 1         4     1      1       R
369    7 1         6     0      0       R
370   10 0         6     1      0       R
371    8 1         0     0      0       D
372    6 0         5     1      0       I
373    0 1         5     0      1       R
374    4 1         3     1      1       D
375   10 1         2     1      1       I
376    0 1         3     1      1       D
377    2 1         5     1      1       R
378    4 0         1     1      0       D
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433    3 1         3     1      1       I
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530    7 1         5     1      1       I
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532    3 1         2     1      1       I
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535    3 1         3     1      1       R
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543    3 0         2     1      0       I
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551    6 0         3     1      1       I
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594    0 0         1     1      0       D
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596    8 1         3     1      0       I
597    5 0         0     1      0       I
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621    3 1         5     1      0       R
622    6 1         5     1      1       R
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630    4 1         3     1      0       I
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632    2 1         1     1      1       D
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651    5 1         3     1      0       I
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655    0 1         0     1      1       D
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657    3 1         3     0      1       I
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660    3 1         3     0      1       I
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662    5 0         3     0      0       I
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666    1 1         3     1      1       I
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715    4 1         3     1      1       I
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1024   3 0         5     0      0       I
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1063   6 1         5     1      1       R
1064   1 1         4     1      1       R
1065   3 0         3     0      0       I
1066   6 1         6     1      1       R
1067   6 1         3     0      0       I
1068   0 1         1     0      1       D
1073   6 1         3     0      1       D
1074   0 1         1     1      1       D
1076   3 1         1     1      0       D
1077   5 0         5     0      1       R
1078   5 0         3     1      1       I
1079   0 0         5     1      0       R
1080   0 1         5     1      0       R
1081   2 1         5     1      0       R
1082   1 1         0     1      1       D
1083   5 1         4     1      0       D
1084   3 1         3     1      0       D
1085   3 0         3     1      0       D
1086   0 1         3     0      1       R
1087  10 1         3     1      1       R
1088   3 1         3     1      1       R
1089   5 1         6     0      1       D
1090   3 1         2     1      0       R
1092   1 1         5     1      1       R
1093   4 1         2     1      0       D
1094   1 1         1     1      1       D
1095   2 0         3     1      1       I
1096   1 1         3     1      1       R
1097   1 1         3     1      1       D
1098   6 1         2     0      1       D
1100   1 0         5     1      0       R
1101   7 1         5     1      1       R
1102   0 0         3     1      0       D
1104   9 1         5     1      1       I
1105   8 1         5     1      0       R
1107   1 1         5     1      1       R
1108   7 1         3     1      1       D
1109   3 0         3     1      1       D
1110   7 1         3     1      0       D
1111   2 1         1     1      1       D
1112   1 1         3     0      0       I
1113  10 0         0     1      1       D
1114   5 1         1     1      1       D
1115   6 1         0     1      1       D
1116   5 1         5     1      1       R
1117   6 1         3     0      1       I
1120  10 1         6     1      1       R
1121  10 1         3     1      1       D
1122   8 0         0     1      1       R
1124   4 1         5     1      1       R
1125   7 1         5     1      1       I
1126   2 0         2     1      1       I
1127   5 0         1     1      0       R
1128  10 1         6     1      1       R
1129  10 1         3     1      1       D
1131   7 1         2     0      1       I
1132   5 0         4     1      1       D
1133   5 1         3     1      1       I
1134   6 0         4     1      0       I
1136   2 0         4     1      1       R
1137   5 1         1     0      1       D
1138   6 1         3     1      1       R
1139   2 0         3     0      1       D
1140   3 1         0     0      1       I
1141   5 1         3     0      0       I
1142   1 1         6     1      1       R
1143   2 0         3     0      0       I
1144   5 1         5     1      1       R
1145   5 1         3     1      0       D
1147   1 1         4     1      1       R
1148   2 1         2     1      1       D
1149   9 1         3     1      1       R
1150   5 0         3     1      0       I
1151   3 0         3     1      1       I
1152   5 1         5     1      1       R
1153   8 1         4     0      0       D
1154   2 1         3     0      0       D
1155   1 0         3     1      0       D
1156   5 0         5     1      0       R
1157  10 1         3     0      0       D
1158   4 0         3     1      1       I
1160   2 1         4     1      1       R
1161   8 1         6     1      1       R
1162   1 0         4     1      0       I
1163   0 0         1     0      1       D
1164   3 1         3     1      1       I
1165  10 0         3     1      1       R
1167   0 0         3     1      0       R
1168  10 1         6     1      1       R
1169   1 1         4     1      1       R
1170   5 1         3     1      0       I
1171   4 1         1     1      1       D
1173   5 1         2     0      1       I
1174   5 1         3     1      1       I
1175   9 1         2     0      0       R
1176   0 1         0     1      0       D
1178   2 1         1     1      1       R
1179   4 0         1     0      0       D
1180   5 1         3     1      0       D
1181   0 1         1     0      1       I
1182   2 1         4     1      0       D
1183   2 0         1     1      0       D
1186   5 1         4     0      0       D
1187   6 1         1     0      0       I
1188   1 0         3     0      0       I
1189   1 1         6     1      1       R
1191   3 1         3     1      1       I
1192   5 0         2     1      1       D
1193   2 1         1     1      0       D
1195   4 1         1     0      1       I
1196   5 1         3     1      0       D
1197   0 0         2     1      1       I
1198   8 1         4     0      0       R
1200   2 1         3     1      1       I
1201   3 0         1     1      1       D
1202   7 0         3     1      0       I
1205   3 1         3     1      0       D
1206   9 1         1     0      0       R
1207  10 1         5     1      1       R
1208   6 0         3     0      1       D
1210   0 1         1     0      1       D
1213   6 1         1     1      0       R
1214   6 1         1     0      1       I
1218   6 1         5     0      0       R
1219   2 1         3     1      1       I
1220   7 0         3     0      1       R
1222   2 1         2     0      1       D
1225   5 0         0     0      1       D
1227   2 0         3     0      1       I
1228   7 1         4     0      0       R
1229   5 0         5     0      0       I
1230   5 1         4     0      1       R
1231   7 1         5     0      0       D
1233   1 1         3     1      0       I
1235   5 1         1     0      0       D
1237  10 1         0     0      0       D
1238   0 0         0     0      0       I
1239  10 1         5     0      0       R
1240   4 0         3     0      1       D
1242   9 0         3     0      1       I
1243  10 0         2     0      0       D
1244   7 1         4     0      0       R
1245  10 0         1     1      0       D
1246   4 0         6     0      0       R
1249   0 1         0     0      0       D
1250  10 1         4     1      0       R
1252   3 1         1     0      0       D
1253   9 0         3     1      1       R
1254   7 1         3     0      1       D
1255   8 0         6     1      0       D
1256   0 0         1     0      1       D
1257  10 1         1     0      0       I
1258   3 0         0     1      0       D
1259   6 1         1     0      1       D
1261   0 0         3     0      1       D
1262   8 1         5     1      0       D
1263   5 1         1     0      1       D
1264   9 0         3     0      1       R
1266   2 1         0     1      1       I
1268   1 1         1     1      0       D
1269   5 1         1     0      0       D
1270   6 0         0     0      0       D
1271   4 0         5     1      0       D
1274   5 1         0     0      0       R
1276   7 1         2     0      1       D
1277   3 1         2     0      0       R
1278  10 1         2     0      1       D
1280   1 0         1     0      1       D
1283   7 1         1     0      1       D
1284   7 0         3     0      0       D
1285   9 1         4     0      0       I
1286  10 0         2     0      0       D
1287   0 0         5     0      0       D
1288   4 0         1     1      1       D
1292   6 1         0     0      0       D
1293   1 1         3     0      1       D
1294   2 0         2     0      1       D
1295   6 0         1     0      0       D
1296   8 1         3     0      1       D
1297   5 0         2     0      1       D
1298   7 0         3     0      1       I
1299   4 1         3     0      1       I
1300   8 1         1     0      0       D
1301   3 0         5     1      1       R
1302   6 1         5     0      0       I
1303   0 0         3     1      0       D
1304   2 1         0     1      1       D
1305   7 1         3     0      1       D
1306   4 1         1     0      1       I
1309  10 1         6     0      0       R
1310   7 1         3     1      1       I
1311   8 1         1     0      0       D
1313  10 1         1     0      0       D
1314   0 1         1     0      0       R
1315   3 1         3     0      0       D
1317   0 1         1     0      1       D
1318   0 1         4     0      1       D
1319   8 1         5     1      0       R
1320  10 0         3     1      0       R
1321   8 1         4     1      0       R
1323  10 1         5     0      0       R
1324   8 1         5     1      0       R
1325   7 1         3     0      0       D
1326   6 1         5     0      0       R
1328   1 1         3     0      1       R
1329   7 1         0     0      0       D
1332   7 0         4     1      0       R
1333   7 1         1     1      0       D
1334   6 1         1     0      1       I
1335   3 1         3     0      0       I
1336   7 1         2     1      1       R
1338   0 1         0     0      0       D
1339   8 0         0     0      0       R
1341   5 1         0     0      1       D
1342   5 1         0     0      0       I
1343   5 1         1     0      0       D
1344   6 1         1     0      1       D
1345  10 0         1     0      1       I
1346   4 0         3     0      0       D
1349   0 1         0     0      1       D
1350   7 0         1     0      0       R
1351   5 1         3     0      1       D
1352   0 0         3     0      1       I
1353   8 1         1     0      0       D
1354   9 1         3     0      0       D
1357  10 1         2     0      1       D
1358   3 0         1     0      0       D
1359   2 1         4     0      0       D
1360   3 1         3     0      0       I
1361   3 1         0     0      1       D
1364   0 1         3     0      0       D
1365   5 0         3     1      1       I
1366  10 1         5     0      0       D
1370   3 0         3     0      1       D
1372   3 0         2     0      0       D
1373  10 0         0     1      0       R
1374   4 0         3     0      0       D
1376   9 0         1     0      0       D
1377   7 1         4     0      1       D
1378   4 1         2     0      0       I
1379   9 1         1     0      0       D
1382  10 1         1     0      0       R
1383   3 1         1     0      1       D
1384   5 1         0     0      1       D
1386   7 0         1     0      0       D
1387   6 1         1     1      0       D
1388  10 0         0     0      0       R
1389   5 1         1     0      0       I
1390   8 0         3     0      1       D
1391   8 1         1     0      0       D
1392  10 0         3     0      0       D
1393   5 1         3     0      0       I
1394   4 0         4     0      0       I
1395   0 1         3     1      0       I
1396   5 1         3     0      1       I
1397   7 1         3     0      0       D
1398   4 1         2     1      1       D
1402   7 0         2     0      1       I
1403   5 1         2     1      0       D
1404   6 1         3     0      0       D
1405   7 0         1     0      1       I
1406   8 1         0     1      1       R
1408   5 1         3     0      0       D
1409   0 1         0     1      0       D
1410  10 1         3     0      0       I
1412   7 1         1     0      0       D
1415   9 1         3     0      0       I
1416   8 1         3     0      1       R
1417   2 1         5     0      0       I
1418   5 0         3     0      0       D
1419   6 0         2     0      1       D
1421   6 0         2     0      0       I
1422   6 1         5     0      0       I
1423   6 0         1     0      0       D
1424  10 0         4     0      1       R
1425   6 1         5     0      1       D
1426   6 1         1     1      0       I
1430   0 0         0     0      0       D
1431   2 1         5     1      0       R
1432   5 1         5     0      0       R
1433   4 1         5     0      0       I
1437   5 1         2     0      0       R
1439  10 1         1     1      0       R
1441   6 0         1     0      1       D
1442   5 1         3     0      1       D
1443   7 1         3     0      0       D
1444   6 0         1     0      1       D
1446   8 1         4     0      1       R
1447   5 0         3     0      1       D
1449   3 1         4     0      0       D
1450   4 1         6     1      0       R
1451   5 0         1     0      0       I
1456   3 1         0     0      1       D
1458   3 0         2     0      0       I
1460   5 1         1     0      1       D
1461   0 1         3     1      0       I
1463   2 0         3     0      0       D
1465   7 1         5     1      1       I
1466   6 1         6     0      1       I
1467   2 1         4     1      0       I
1469   5 1         1     0      0       D
1471   9 1         1     1      0       D
1472   5 1         1     0      1       I
1473   6 1         1     1      0       R
1475  10 1         1     0      1       D
1476   4 1         1     0      1       I
1477   7 1         1     1      1       I
1478   4 1         2     0      1       D
1479   4 1         3     1      0       R
1480   4 0         3     0      1       I
1481   9 1         4     0      0       R
1482   4 1         3     0      1       D
1485   7 1         4     1      1       D
1486   1 1         1     1      1       D
1487  10 0         1     1      0       I
1488   9 1         5     0      1       I
1490   5 1         5     0      1       R
1491   9 1         3     1      0       D
1492   8 1         6     0      0       R
1494   3 1         0     0      1       D
1495   8 0         3     0      0       D
1496   4 1         1     0      0       D
1498   5 1         3     0      1       I
1500   4 1         3     1      1       D
1501   8 0         5     1      0       R
1503   3 1         6     0      1       R
1505   2 1         1     0      0       D
1506   9 0         1     0      0       D
1507  10 1         3     0      0       I
1511   7 0         3     1      0       R
1512   5 1         1     0      0       D
1513   2 1         3     0      1       D
1514  10 1         3     1      1       D
1515   1 0         3     1      0       I
1516   7 0         1     0      0       D
1517   5 1         3     0      1       I
1518  10 0         1     0      1       D
1519   6 1         0     0      0       R
1521   5 1         1     0      0       D
1522   6 1         0     0      0       R
1524   6 1         2     0      1       D
1525   5 0         3     0      1       D
1526   8 1         2     0      1       D
1527   1 1         1     1      1       D
1528   8 0         5     0      0       I
1529   0 1         1     1      1       D
1531   4 1         3     1      0       D
1532   7 0         1     1      0       I
1534   0 0         0     0      1       D
1536   8 1         5     1      1       R
1538   6 0         2     0      0       D
1539   6 1         3     0      0       D
1540   6 1         0     1      0       R
1541   7 0         4     0      0       I
1542   5 1         3     0      1       D
1543  10 1         1     1      1       R
1544  10 1         1     0      1       D
1545   5 1         1     0      0       D
1546   9 1         2     1      0       R
1547  10 1         3     0      0       D
1548  10 1         4     0      1       R
1549   1 0         3     1      0       R
1551   9 1         3     0      0       R
1552   8 1         4     0      0       R
1554   3 1         4     1      1       R
1555   0 1         1     0      1       I
1559   4 1         4     1      1       R
1560   5 0         3     1      1       D
1561   1 0         1     0      1       D
1564   7 0         5     0      0       R
1565   0 1         3     1      0       D
1566   5 0         3     0      0       D
1568   0 1         1     0      0       I
1569   3 1         3     0      1       I
1571   9 1         1     1      1       D
1572   9 1         5     0      0       D
1573   8 1         1     0      1       R
1574   5 1         3     1      0       I
1575   0 1         5     0      0       D
1576  10 1         3     1      1       I
1579   0 1         1     0      0       I
1581   4 0         3     0      1       D
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1585   5 1         5     0      1       I
1586   4 0         2     0      1       D
1587   9 1         4     0      1       D
1588  10 1         1     0      1       R
1590   6 0         3     1      1       D
1591   0 1         3     0      0       I
1592   7 0         3     0      0       D
1593   9 1         6     1      0       R
1594   3 1         3     1      0       D
1596   6 1         2     0      0       D
1597   1 1         3     1      0       I
1601  10 1         0     0      0       D
1602  10 0         1     1      0       R
1603  10 1         6     1      0       R
1604   1 1         2     1      0       I
1605   3 1         0     0      0       D
1606   8 1         1     0      0       D
1608   7 1         5     1      0       R
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1611   3 1         1     1      0       D
1612   8 1         5     0      0       R
1613   5 1         1     0      0       D
1614   8 1         2     1      1       I
1615   3 1         3     1      0       R
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1619   9 1         1     0      0       D
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1622   2 0         2     1      0       D
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1631   9 0         4     0      0       R
1632   7 1         5     0      0       R
1633   5 1         4     1      0       R
1634   2 0         5     1      0       R
1635   3 1         1     0      0       I
1636   3 1         5     1      0       I
1637   6 0         6     0      0       I
1638   6 0         3     1      0       I
1640   5 1         3     0      0       I
1642   0 0         0     1      0       D
1643   5 1         0     1      0       R
1645   0 1         1     1      0       I
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1648  10 0         0     1      0       D
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1652   9 0         2     0      0       I
1653   1 0         4     0      0       R
1654   8 1         5     1      0       R
1656   4 0         0     1      0       D
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1665   6 1         5     1      0       R
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1671   6 1         4     1      0       R
1672   9 0         4     0      0       I
1673   6 1         3     1      0       R
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1676  10 1         5     1      0       R
1677  10 1         3     0      0       D
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1679   2 0         3     1      0       R
1680   5 1         1     0      0       D
1681   7 1         3     0      0       I
1682   8 1         1     0      0       D
1684   2 1         3     0      0       D
1686   7 1         2     1      0       R
1687   3 1         5     1      0       I
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1699   2 1         5     0      0       I
1700   8 1         5     1      0       R
1701   1 0         1     1      0       D
1702   8 1         0     0      0       I
1704  10 0         6     1      0       R
1705   4 1         4     1      0       R
1706   5 1         3     1      0       I
1707   5 1         1     1      0       D
1708   7 1         4     1      0       R
1709   7 0         3     0      0       D
1710   0 1         0     0      0       D
1711   2 1         2     1      0       D
1715   5 1         1     1      0       D
1716   7 1         1     1      0       D
1717   1 1         3     0      0       I
1718   3 1         0     1      0       I
1720   8 1         4     0      0       D
1721   2 1         0     0      0       I
1722   7 1         3     1      0       R
1723   7 1         1     1      0       R
1724   8 0         6     1      0       R
1725   9 0         2     0      0       D
1726   8 0         0     1      0       I
1728   1 1         5     1      0       D
1729   0 1         3     1      0       D
1731  10 1         0     1      0       R
1732   6 1         3     0      0       I
1733   2 0         5     1      0       R
1734   3 1         5     1      0       R
1735   5 1         1     1      0       D
1736   5 1         3     1      0       I
1738   0 1         5     1      0       R
1739   5 0         0     0      0       D
1740   4 1         3     1      0       I
1741   8 0         0     1      0       R
1744   1 0         1     1      0       D
1745  10 1         3     0      0       I
1746   0 1         3     0      0       D
1747   2 0         2     1      0       I
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1750  10 1         5     1      1       R
1751   0 0         3     0      0       D
1752   6 1         1     1      0       I
1753   6 1         3     1      0       R
1754   1 1         1     1      0       D
1755   5 1         4     1      0       R
1757   1 1         4     1      0       R
1758   6 1         3     1      0       R
1759   6 1         4     1      0       D
1761   6 0         2     1      0       D
1763  10 1         0     1      0       R
1764   7 1         3     0      0       I
1765   8 0         3     0      0       R
1766   1 0         3     0      0       D
1767   9 1         5     1      0       R
1769   9 0         4     0      0       I
1770   6 1         3     1      0       R
1771   0 0         2     1      0       I
1772  10 0         1     0      0       I
1773   5 1         0     1      0       R
1775   0 1         0     0      0       I
1776   6 1         3     1      0       I
1777   2 1         3     1      0       R
1778   1 1         3     0      0       I
1779   7 0         1     1      0       D
1781   8 0         0     1      0       R
1782   3 0         5     1      0       R
1783  10 1         6     1      0       R
1784   5 0         3     0      0       I
1787   7 0         1     0      1       D
1788   5 1         1     0      0       D
1789   7 0         1     1      0       R
1790   8 0         1     1      0       D
1791   9 1         2     1      0       D
1792   7 1         1     1      0       D
1793   7 0         1     1      0       D
1794   0 1         0     0      0       D
1795   0 1         2     0      0       D
1796   7 1         3     0      0       I
1797  10 1         0     0      0       D
1798   3 1         1     0      0       R
1799   8 1         5     0      0       I
1800   6 1         4     1      0       D
1802   7 1         4     0      0       D
1803   5 1         2     0      0       D
1805   9 0         3     1      0       I
1806   5 1         3     1      0       R
1808   3 1         1     1      0       D
1809   1 0         1     1      0       D
1810   3 1         4     0      0       R
1811   0 0         4     1      0       R
1812  10 1         0     0      0       R
1813   5 1         0     1      0       R
1814   0 1         0     1      0       D
1815   2 0         1     1      0       D
1816   8 1         1     1      0       D
1817   5 0         3     0      0       R
1819  10 1         5     1      0       R
1820   7 1         3     1      1       R
1821   2 0         3     1      0       I
1822   7 1         4     1      1       I
1823   5 1         3     1      0       D
1824   0 0         2     1      0       D
1825   5 0         3     1      1       D
1828   2 0         5     1      0       D
1829   0 1         0     0      0       D
1830   5 1         3     1      1       I
1831   1 0         1     0      1       D
1833   7 1         3     1      1       I
1834   4 1         5     0      0       D
1835   5 1         3     0      1       D
1837   9 1         3     0      1       I
1838   0 1         0     0      1       D
1840   5 1         3     1      1       R
1841   8 1         3     1      1       I
1842   2 1         3     1      1       I
1843  10 1         2     0      0       D
1844   5 0         4     1      0       R
1845  10 0         3     1      1       D
1846  10 1         3     1      1       I
1847   7 1         5     0      1       R
1848   5 1         3     1      0       D
1849   2 1         2     0      0       I
1850   6 1         1     0      0       D
1853   8 1         1     0      1       D
1856   1 1         3     0      1       D
1858   5 0         3     1      1       I
1859   1 1         2     1      1       R
1860   4 1         1     1      1       D
1861   6 1         2     0      1       D
1862   2 0         3     1      0       I
1864   9 1         4     0      1       D
1865   4 0         3     1      1       R
1866   1 0         2     0      1       D
1867   4 1         1     0      1       D
1868   0 1         4     1      1       R
1870   7 1         1     0      1       D
1871   5 1         3     1      1       I
1872   8 1         1     1      1       I
1874  10 1         5     1      0       R
1876   6 0         5     1      0       R
1877   2 1         5     1      1       R
1878   5 1         5     1      1       R
1880   5 1         1     1      1       D
1882   2 1         0     0      1       D
1883   2 0         3     1      1       I
1884   0 1         0     1      1       D
1886   6 1         4     1      0       D
1887   0 0         0     1      1       D
1888   4 1         3     1      0       I
1891   1 1         0     1      1       D
1892   3 1         1     0      1       D
1894  10 0         3     1      0       R
1895  10 0         5     1      1       R
1897   2 1         2     1      1       I
1900   5 1         5     1      1       R
1901   8 1         3     0      1       D
1902   3 1         1     1      0       D
1903   8 1         3     0      1       D
1906   3 1         1     0      1       I
1907   8 1         5     1      0       R
1908   3 0         1     0      1       D
1909   5 1         0     1      0       D
1910  10 0         3     0      0       D
1911  10 1         5     1      1       D
1913   6 1         0     0      1       D
1914   3 0         5     1      1       R
1915   0 1         1     1      1       I
1918   8 0         3     1      0       D
1919   7 1         3     0      0       D
1921   3 1         1     0      0       D
1922   1 1         5     0      0       R
1923   5 0         2     0      1       D
1924   2 1         3     1      1       D
1925   4 1         3     1      1       I
1926   9 1         0     0      1       D
1927   4 1         3     0      0       I
1928   0 1         2     1      1       I
1930  10 1         2     0      1       D
1931   8 0         3     1      0       R
1934   0 1         3     0      1       I
1935   4 0         3     1      1       I
1936   6 0         6     1      1       R
1937   2 1         3     1      0       R
1938   2 1         3     0      1       D
1939  10 1         0     1      0       R
1940  10 1         0     1      0       R
1941   5 0         0     0      1       I
1942   7 1         5     1      0       R
1943  10 1         0     1      0       R
1945   0 0         1     0      1       D
1946   9 1         2     0      0       D
1947   5 1         5     1      1       R
1948   3 1         3     1      1       D
1951   4 1         5     1      1       R
1952   9 1         1     0      1       I
1953   2 1         1     1      1       I
1954   2 1         5     1      1       R
1955   2 0         1     1      1       D
1956   4 1         3     1      1       I
1957   7 1         5     1      0       R
1958   6 0         3     0      0       D
1959   5 1         2     0      1       D
1960   3 1         4     0      0       I
1961   0 1         3     0      0       D
1962   7 1         1     0      1       D
1963   5 0         3     1      1       R
1964   5 1         5     1      1       I
1965   7 1         0     0      1       D
1966  10 1         4     1      0       R
1967   2 1         5     1      1       R
1968   6 1         5     1      1       R
1969   0 1         3     0      1       D
1973   0 1         6     1      1       R
1974   6 1         1     0      0       R
1977   9 1         5     1      0       R
1978   2 0         3     0      1       D
1979   4 0         3     0      1       I
1982   8 1         5     0      1       R
1983   3 1         4     0      0       D
1984   0 1         1     0      1       D
1990   4 1         3     1      1       D
1991   7 1         5     0      0       R
1992   0 1         3     1      0       I
1994   7 0         4     1      1       I
1995   3 1         3     0      1       D
1998   5 1         4     1      1       R
2000   2 1         3     1      1       I
2001   8 0         5     0      1       I
2002   5 1         2     0      1       I
2003   2 1         3     1      1       D
2004  10 1         3     1      0       D
2005   6 1         5     1      0       R
2006   6 1         5     1      1       R
2007   6 0         5     1      0       R
2008   4 1         0     1      1       I
2009   5 0         3     1      0       D
2010   1 1         0     0      0       D
2011   6 1         4     1      0       R
2012   7 0         0     0      0       D
2013   4 1         3     0      0       D
2014   5 1         1     0      1       D
2015   1 0         3     1      0       R
2016   4 0         3     1      1       R
2017  10 1         3     0      0       R
2018   7 1         5     1      1       R
2019   6 1         4     1      1       R
2020   0 1         5     1      0       R
2021   1 1         1     1      1       D
2022   1 1         4     1      1       R
2023   0 0         5     0      0       D
2024   8 1         1     1      1       I
2025   4 1         0     0      1       D
2026   5 1         3     1      0       D
2027   3 1         4     1      1       R
2028   0 0         3     0      1       D
2029  10 1         5     1      1       I
2030   5 0         2     0      1       D
2031   3 1         1     0      0       D
2032   3 0         4     1      1       I
2033  10 1         5     1      1       R
2034   1 1         5     1      0       R
2035   0 0         3     1      0       I
2037   0 1         6     1      0       R
2039   0 1         5     0      0       D
2040   2 0         5     1      0       R
2042   1 0         4     0      1       D
2043   5 1         3     0      0       I
2044   6 0         4     1      0       R
2045   3 1         6     1      1       R
2046   9 1         3     0      1       D
2048   6 0         0     1      0       I
2049   0 1         6     1      1       D
2050   3 1         5     0      0       D
2051  10 1         5     1      1       R
2052   2 0         5     1      1       R
2053   3 1         0     1      1       D
2054   4 1         1     1      0       D
2055   2 0         2     1      0       D
2056   7 1         2     1      1       I
2057  10 1         3     1      1       I
2058   2 1         3     1      1       R
2060   2 0         0     0      1       D
2061   2 1         3     0      1       I
2062   1 0         4     1      1       R
2063   1 1         3     1      1       I
2064  10 1         6     0      1       D
2065   8 1         3     1      0       R
2066  10 0         1     0      1       D
2067   0 1         0     1      1       D
2068   3 0         3     1      1       I
2069   1 1         5     1      1       R
2070   9 1         3     1      0       I
2071   4 1         1     1      1       I
2073   8 0         3     1      1       D
2075   1 1         1     1      1       D
2076  10 1         0     1      1       D
2077   3 0         2     1      1       D
2078   9 1         5     1      0       R
2079   5 0         3     0      1       D
2080   1 0         3     1      1       R
2081   4 0         1     1      1       I
2082   7 0         0     0      1       D
2083   5 0         3     0      1       D
2084   2 1         1     0      1       D
2085   5 1         2     1      1       R
2086   0 0         0     0      1       D
2087   5 0         3     0      0       I
2088   6 0         2     0      1       D
2089   0 1         1     0      1       D
2092  10 1         6     0      1       D
2093   5 1         6     0      0       D
2095   1 1         5     1      1       R
2098   3 0         3     0      1       R
2099   5 0         2     1      1       R
2100   2 1         3     0      1       I
2101   2 1         5     0      1       D
2102   9 0         0     0      0       D
2103   4 1         3     1      1       R
2104   5 1         1     0      0       D
2105   1 1         2     0      1       I
2107   0 0         5     0      0       R
2108   6 0         3     0      1       D
2109   0 0         2     1      1       D
2110   2 1         3     1      1       I
2111   0 1         3     0      1       I
2112   6 1         4     1      1       R
2113   2 1         3     1      0       R
2114   1 1         5     1      0       R
2115   9 1         3     1      0       R
2117   5 1         3     1      1       R
2118  10 1         1     1      0       R
2119   7 0         1     1      1       D
2120   7 1         6     1      1       R
2121   0 1         1     1      0       I
2122   0 0         0     0      1       D
2125   6 1         3     1      1       I
2126   8 1         3     1      1       I
2127   5 0         5     1      0       R
2129   6 1         3     0      1       D
2131  10 1         0     1      0       R
2132   0 0         0     1      1       D
2133   4 0         1     0      1       D
2134   8 1         5     1      0       I
2135   5 1         3     1      0       I
2136   5 1         3     1      1       D
2137   5 1         2     0      0       R
2138   7 0         6     1      1       R
2139   0 1         3     0      1       D
2140   7 1         5     1      1       R
2141   5 0         6     1      1       R
2142  10 1         3     0      1       D
2144   5 1         5     1      1       R
2145   8 1         5     1      0       R
2146   8 1         6     1      0       R
2147   6 0         0     0      1       D
2148   0 1         0     1      1       D
2149   0 1         5     1      1       R
2150   5 1         4     1      1       R
2151   4 1         3     1      1       R
2153   5 1         3     1      0       D
2154   7 0         0     0      0       D
2155   2 1         3     1      1       D
2156   8 1         4     1      0       R
2157  10 1         6     1      0       R
2158  10 1         4     1      1       I
2159   2 1         0     1      1       I
2160   2 1         0     0      0       D
2161   5 1         3     1      1       D
2162   5 1         3     1      1       D
2164  10 0         6     1      0       D
2165   1 1         2     1      1       D
2166   4 1         1     0      1       D
2167   5 1         4     0      0       D
2168   1 1         4     0      1       I
2169   0 0         0     1      1       D
2170   5 1         3     1      1       R
2171   4 1         5     0      0       D
2172   4 1         3     1      1       D
2173  10 1         1     1      1       R
2175   2 1         5     1      1       R
2176   8 1         5     1      0       R
2177  10 0         0     0      1       D
2178   9 1         0     1      0       R
2179   6 1         6     1      0       R
2181   9 1         5     1      0       R
2182   5 1         3     0      0       D
2183   6 0         3     1      1       I
2184   0 0         0     0      0       D
2186   8 1         4     1      1       R
2187   6 1         3     0      0       D
2188   8 1         3     1      1       I
2189   0 1         3     1      1       I
2190   7 0         3     1      1       I
2191   0 1         2     0      0       D
2192   3 0         5     1      0       D
2194   4 1         1     1      1       D
2195   0 0         3     0      1       D
2196   8 0         0     1      0       R
2197   2 1         3     1      0       R
2198  10 0         5     1      1       R
2199   8 1         2     1      0       R
2200   0 1         3     0      0       I
2201   4 1         3     0      1       R
2202   5 1         3     0      1       I
2203   9 0         1     0      0       D
2204   9 0         4     1      1       R
2205   5 1         1     1      0       I
2207   1 1         1     0      1       D
2208   3 1         3     0      1       I
2209   0 1         2     0      0       D
2210   2 1         1     0      1       I
2211   8 1         1     1      1       D
2212   0 1         0     0      1       D
2213  10 1         6     0      0       R
2214   3 1         3     0      1       D
2215   0 1         3     0      1       D
2216   2 1         6     0      0       I
2220   5 0         0     0      1       D
2221   6 1         2     0      0       D
2222   5 0         3     0      0       D
2223   2 0         2     0      0       I
2224  10 1         5     0      0       R
2225   3 1         4     1      1       R
2226   0 1         2     0      0       I
2227   5 1         1     0      1       D
2228   4 1         3     0      1       R
2229   4 0         4     0      0       D
2230   5 0         5     1      1       R
2233  10 0         3     1      0       R
2234   6 1         3     0      1       D
2235   5 0         1     1      1       D
2236   1 1         0     1      0       D
2237   5 1         3     1      1       I
2239  10 0         3     0      0       D
2240   6 1         2     1      0       I
2241   8 1         4     1      1       R
2242   5 1         3     1      1       I
2243   0 1         3     1      1       D
2245   4 1         3     0      1       D
2246   2 1         3     0      0       I
2247   5 1         4     1      1       D
2248   5 0         6     1      1       I
2249   5 0         1     1      1       D
2250   6 0         1     1      1       R
2251   3 1         4     1      1       R
2252   1 0         3     1      1       R
2254   5 1         3     1      1       I
2255   0 1         3     1      1       I
2256   5 0         3     1      1       I
2260   5 0         3     1      1       I
2261   2 0         3     1      0       I
2262   2 1         3     1      1       D
2263   1 1         2     1      1       D
2264   2 0         1     1      1       D
2265   5 1         1     1      0       D
2266   5 1         3     1      1       I
2267   5 1         3     1      0       R
2268   0 1         0     1      1       D
2269   8 1         3     1      1       R
2270   1 1         1     1      1       D
2271   2 0         0     1      1       D
2272   2 0         4     1      1       R
2273   2 1         1     1      0       D
2274   5 1         3     1      0       I
2275   2 0         4     1      0       R
2276   3 0         1     1      0       D
2277   0 1         0     1      0       D
2278   2 1         1     1      1       D
2279   0 1         2     1      1       R
2280   4 1         5     1      1       R
2281  10 1         3     1      1       D
2282   5 0         3     1      1       D
2283   3 0         6     1      1       R
2284   8 1         2     1      1       D
2285   6 1         3     1      1       I
2286   5 1         3     1      0       R
2287   1 1         0     1      1       I
2288   4 1         3     1      1       I
2289   1 0         1     1      1       D
2290   4 1         5     1      0       R
2291   5 1         3     1      1       D
2292   3 0         5     1      1       R
2293   5 1         5     1      1       I
2294   5 0         3     1      1       R
2295  10 1         0     1      1       I
2297   0 0         3     1      1       I
2298   0 0         2     1      1       I
2299   2 1         1     1      0       D
2300   6 1         5     1      0       I
2301   5 0         4     1      0       I
2302   2 1         3     1      0       I
2303  10 1         6     1      0       R
2305  10 0         3     1      1       I
2306   0 0         3     1      1       I
2307   4 1         3     1      0       I
2308   2 0         3     1      1       I
2309   7 0         3     1      0       D
2310  10 0         0     1      1       R
2311   4 1         3     1      0       I
2312   8 1         3     1      1       D
2313   6 0         5     1      0       D
2314   5 0         4     1      1       R
2315   0 0         1     1      1       D
2316   3 0         5     1      1       R
2317   0 0         0     1      1       D
2318   5 1         3     1      0       I
2319   5 1         5     1      1       I
2320   3 1         1     1      1       D
2321   8 1         6     1      1       I
2322   0 0         1     1      1       I
2323   9 1         1     1      0       D
2324   2 1         3     1      1       R
2325   5 1         6     1      1       R
2326   7 1         5     1      1       R
2327   1 1         6     1      1       R
2328   2 1         0     1      1       R
2329   4 1         3     1      1       R
2330   0 0         0     1      1       D
2331  10 1         1     1      1       D
2332   1 0         3     1      0       I
2333   6 1         5     1      0       R
2334   3 0         3     1      1       D
2335   2 1         3     1      1       I
2336   8 1         1     1      0       D
2337   4 1         2     1      1       D
2338   4 1         0     1      0       D
2339   5 1         1     1      1       I
2340   4 1         3     1      0       D
2342   5 1         3     0      0       I
2343   1 0         1     1      0       D
2345   1 1         2     1      1       I
2346   9 0         3     1      1       D
2347   3 1         5     1      0       R
2348   7 1         3     1      1       R
2350   1 1         3     1      1       D
2351   4 1         3     1      0       R
2352  10 1         0     1      0       R
2353   5 1         3     1      0       D
2354   6 1         0     1      0       I
2355   7 0         3     1      0       I
2356   8 1         0     1      0       D
2357  10 1         5     1      0       D
2358   1 1         6     1      0       I
2359   2 1         1     1      0       D
2360   4 0         4     1      0       I
2362   6 0         3     1      0       D
2363   9 1         5     1      0       R
2364   7 1         3     1      0       R
2366   2 1         1     1      0       I
2367   7 1         3     1      0       I
2370   7 1         1     1      0       R
2371   6 1         2     1      0       I
2372   1 0         2     1      0       I
2373   5 1         5     1      0       D
2374   5 1         5     1      0       R
2375   5 1         2     1      0       I
2376   6 1         5     1      0       R
2378   8 0         5     1      0       R
2379  10 1         4     1      0       R
2380   7 1         2     1      0       D
2381   2 1         5     1      0       R
2382   6 1         5     1      0       R
2383   6 1         3     1      0       D
2385   8 1         4     1      0       R
2386   0 1         3     1      0       I
2387   6 1         5     1      0       I
2388   0 1         6     0      0       I
2389   5 0         3     1      0       I
2390   4 0         4     1      0       R
2391   7 0         3     1      0       D
2393   0 1         0     1      0       D
2395   0 0         0     1      0       D
2396   6 0         3     1      0       I
2397  10 0         3     1      0       I
2398   5 1         1     1      0       I
2399   3 1         5     1      0       R
2400  10 0         3     1      0       I
2401   7 1         5     1      0       D
2402   4 1         1     1      0       I
2403   5 0         5     1      0       R
2405   2 0         3     1      0       I
2406  10 0         3     1      0       D
2407   4 1         2     1      0       D
2408   7 0         0     1      0       D
2409   3 0         3     1      0       D
2410   2 1         5     1      0       I
2412   5 0         3     1      0       R
2413   7 0         3     1      0       D
2414   6 1         5     1      0       R
2415   5 1         1     1      0       D
2416   0 1         3     1      0       I
2417   6 1         3     1      0       I
2419  10 1         6     1      0       R
2420   1 1         3     1      0       I
2421   6 1         1     1      0       I
2425  10 1         3     1      0       R
2426   8 1         3     1      0       D
2428   5 0         3     1      0       I
2429  10 1         1     1      0       I
2430   5 1         0     0      0       R
2431   1 0         4     1      0       I
2433   3 0         1     1      0       I
2434  10 1         5     1      0       R
2435  10 1         5     1      0       R
2436   1 0         2     1      0       I
2440   6 0         3     1      0       I
2441   6 1         0     1      0       D
2442   5 1         3     1      0       R
2443   9 1         6     1      0       R
2444   7 0         2     1      0       I
2446   5 0         1     1      0       D
2448   5 1         5     1      0       R
2449   6 1         3     1      0       I
2450   0 0         3     0      0       D
2452   3 1         3     1      0       D
2455   8 1         5     1      0       R
2457   5 1         3     1      0       D
2458   2 1         3     1      0       I
2459   7 0         4     1      0       D
2460   1 0         3     1      0       I
2463   9 1         3     1      0       R
2466   7 1         5     1      0       I
2467   0 0         3     1      0       R
2468   3 1         1     1      0       R
2469   2 1         1     1      0       I
2470   5 0         3     1      0       I
2471   1 1         6     1      0       R
2472   7 1         3     1      0       I
2473   5 1         3     1      0       R
2474   3 0         4     1      0       R
2475   8 1         3     1      0       I
2477   3 1         4     0      0       R
2480   0 0         2     1      0       D
2482   2 0         4     1      0       R
2486   8 0         3     1      0       I
2487   0 1         0     1      0       I
2488   6 0         1     1      0       D
2489   5 0         3     1      0       I
2490   0 1         5     1      0       D
2491   3 0         3     1      0       I
2493   1 0         3     1      0       D
2494   5 1         3     1      0       I
2495   4 1         5     1      0       D
2496   5 0         3     1      0       I
2497   3 1         3     1      0       I
2499   8 1         5     1      0       I
2500   3 1         3     1      0       R
2503  10 0         0     1      0       D
2504   0 1         0     1      0       D
2506   6 1         6     1      0       R
2507   6 1         3     1      0       I
2508   3 0         1     1      0       D
2509   4 0         0     1      0       D
2511   0 0         3     1      0       D
2512   3 1         5     1      0       I
2514   5 0         1     1      0       D
2516   4 0         3     1      0       I
2517   6 1         3     1      0       R
2518   2 1         4     1      0       R
2519   5 1         1     1      0       D
2520   6 0         3     1      0       I
2521   4 1         4     1      0       D
2523   1 1         1     1      0       D
2524  10 1         3     1      0       R
2525  10 1         5     1      0       D
2526   0 1         3     1      0       I
2527   2 1         1     1      0       D
2528   0 1         2     1      0       D
2529   1 1         1     1      0       D
2530   0 1         1     1      0       D
2532   5 1         3     1      0       R
2533   5 1         3     1      0       I
2534   3 0         4     1      0       I
2535   1 1         3     1      0       D
2536   1 1         0     1      0       D
2537  10 1         4     1      0       R
2539   1 1         1     1      0       I
2540   7 1         3     1      0       I
2541   8 1         3     1      0       I
2542   3 0         5     1      0       R
2543   6 0         5     1      0       R
2544   2 0         3     1      0       I
2545   2 0         3     1      0       I
2546   3 0         1     1      0       D
2547   2 1         6     1      0       R
2548   0 1         3     1      0       I
2549   3 0         5     1      0       R
2550   0 1         3     1      0       R
2551   6 1         3     1      0       I
2552   5 1         5     1      0       R
2554   1 1         3     1      0       I
2555   5 1         3     1      0       I
2556   6 1         3     1      0       R
3100   9 0         4     1      1       R
4100  10 0         3     1      1       R
5100   2 0         1     1      1       D
6100   5 0         5     1      0       I
7100   3 0         5     1      0       R
8100   8 0         3     1      1       I
9100   0 0         1     1      0       D
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11100  1 0         3     1      1       D
12100  0 0         4     1      0       I
13100  8 0         5     1      1       R
14100  3 0         5     1      0       R
15100 10 0         6     1      0       D
16100  2 0         4     1      1       R
17100  1 0         3     0      1       D
18100  6 0         1     1      1       D
19100  0 0         5     1      1       R
20100  2 0         3     0      1       I
21100  7 0         3     1      1       I
23100  4 0         3     1      0       R
24100  7 0         5     1      1       R
2557   2 0         3     1      1       R
2610   4 0         2     0      1       D
2710   7 0         1     1      0       R
2810   2 0         2     1      0       D
3010   8 0         3     1      0       R
3110   5 0         5     1      0       R
3210   9 0         4     1      1       I
3310   5 0         0     1      0       R
3510   9 0         3     1      0       D
3610  10 0         0     0      0       R
3710   0 0         3     0      1       D
3910   1 0         2     0      1       D
4310   8 0         1     0      1       R
4410   3 0         2     0      1       D
4610   9 0         2     0      0       D
4710   5 0         3     1      1       R
4810  10 0         1     0      0       D
4910   6 0         3     1      0       R
5010   3 0         5     1      0       R
5110   7 0         2     1      0       D
5210   0 0         3     0      0       I
5310   1 0         1     0      0       I
5410   7 0         2     1      0       D
5510   4 0         5     1      0       R
5810   5 0         2     0      1       R
5910   9 0         3     1      0       R
6110   6 0         3     1      1       D
6210   4 0         3     0      1       D
6310   9 0         0     0      1       I
6410   7 0         1     0      1       I
6610   5 0         3     1      1       I
6810   4 0         4     0      0       I
6910   1 0         3     1      1       I
7210   8 0         4     0      1       I
7310   8 0         2     0      1       I
7410   4 0         3     1      1       D
7610   6 0         3     0      1       D
7710   0 0         1     0      1       D
7810   0 0         1     1      1       I
7910   0 0         0     1      1       D
8310  10 0         5     0      0       D
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8610   1 0         0     0      0       I
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8810   2 0         6     1      1       R
8910   2 0         6     1      0       R
9010   7 0         4     0      1       I
9110  10 0         3     0      1       D
9210   6 0         0     0      0       D
9310   3 0         1     1      1       D
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9610  10 0         6     1      1       R
10010  3 0         3     0      1       I
10110  4 0         1     1      1       D
10510  1 0         6     1      1       R
10610  7 0         5     1      0       R
10810 10 0         2     0      1       D
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11110  2 0         1     0      1       D
11310  5 0         3     0      1       R
11410  7 0         0     0      1       D
11510  0 0         3     1      0       D
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11710  8 0         3     0      1       D
11810  5 0         5     1      0       R
11910  4 0         3     0      1       D
12010  3 0         5     1      1       R
12310  8 0         3     1      0       R
12410  2 0         1     1      1       D
12510  7 0         1     1      0       R
12610  4 0         4     0      1       D
12710  6 0         2     1      1       D
12810  6 0         5     1      1       R
13110  5 0         1     1      1       R
13210  1 0         3     1      1       D
13310  7 0         3     0      1       I
13410  8 0         5     0      0       R
13510  5 0         4     1      1       I
13610  6 0         1     1      0       I
13810  1 0         4     1      0       R
13910  2 0         0     0      1       D
14110  8 0         3     1      1       I
14210  0 0         3     1      1       I
14310  5 0         3     0      0       D
14410  2 0         3     1      1       I
14510  5 0         6     1      1       R
14610  5 0         4     1      1       D
14710  4 0         4     1      0       D
14910  2 0         3     1      1       R
15010  6 0         3     0      0       I
15110  1 0         1     1      1       D
15210  2 0         0     0      0       D
15310  0 0         1     1      1       D
15610  1 0         5     1      1       R
15910  3 0         3     1      1       R
16110  3 0         3     0      1       I
16210  9 0         3     1      1       I
16410 10 0         2     0      0       D
16510  9 0         3     1      1       D
16610 10 0         1     1      1       D
16710  2 0         4     1      1       R
16810  1 0         1     0      1       D
16910 10 0         1     1      0       R
17010  1 0         4     1      1       D
17110  0 0         3     0      0       I
17210  1 0         4     1      0       R
17310  3 0         3     1      0       I
17410  4 0         1     1      1       D
17510  2 0         5     1      1       R
17610  9 0         5     1      1       R
17710  5 0         0     1      1       D
17810  2 0         1     1      1       D
17910  5 0         6     1      0       R
18010  2 0         3     1      1       I
18210  8 0         5     1      1       R
18310  3 0         3     1      0       R
18410 10 0         3     1      1       D
18510  2 0         3     0      1       I
18610  0 0         5     1      0       I
18710  9 0         3     1      1       R
18810  1 0         0     1      1       D
18910  8 0         5     1      0       R
19010  4 0         3     1      0       D
19110  1 0         3     1      1       D
19210  5 0         3     1      1       I
19310  0 0         3     1      0       I
19410  8 0         3     1      1       D
19510  1 0         2     1      1       D
19610  2 0         4     1      1       I
19710  2 0         4     1      1       R
19810  3 0         5     1      1       D
19910  7 0         0     0      1       D
20110  2 0         1     1      0       D
20210  7 0         3     0      0       I
20310  4 0         1     1      1       D
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20510  0 0         3     0      1       D
20610  1 0         6     1      1       R
20710  1 0         5     1      0       R
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20910  7 0         4     1      1       R
21010  1 0         1     1      1       D
21110  0 0         1     0      1       D
21210  4 0         3     0      0       D
21310  2 0         3     0      1       D
21410  5 0         3     1      1       I
21510  1 0         1     1      1       D
21610  4 0         3     1      1       I
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21810  1 0         5     1      1       R
21910  0 0         5     1      1       R
22010  4 0         3     1      1       R
22110 10 0         6     1      1       I
22210  9 0         0     1      1       D
22310  5 0         5     1      1       I
22410  7 0         3     1      1       D
22510 10 0         6     1      1       R
22710  5 0         3     1      1       D
22810  6 0         5     1      0       I
23010  1 0         1     1      1       D
23110  5 0         0     1      1       D
23210  4 0         3     0      0       D
23310  8 0         3     1      1       R
23410  5 0         4     0      1       I
23510  2 0         1     0      1       D
23610  5 0         2     0      1       D
23710  6 0         5     1      1       R
23810  5 0         4     1      1       D
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24110  2 0         4     1      1       R
24210  4 0         5     1      1       R
24310  0 0         1     1      0       D
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24510  0 0         0     1      1       I
24610 10 0         3     1      0       I
24710  3 0         5     1      1       R
24810  4 0         3     1      1       D
24910  0 0         5     1      1       R
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25110  1 0         6     1      0       R
25210  3 0         3     1      1       I
25310  1 0         3     0      1       D
25410  0 0         2     1      1       D
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2561   4 0         4     1      0       D
2571   1 0         1     1      1       D
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2601   1 0         3     1      1       D
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2641   9 0         6     1      0       I
2651   4 0         2     1      1       I
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2721   8 0         3     1      1       D
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2781   1 0         4     1      1       I
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2811   1 0         3     0      1       D
2821  10 0         5     0      0       I
2831   4 0         3     1      1       I
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3111  10 0         1     0      1       D
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3211   1 0         3     0      0       D
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3261   8 0         4     1      0       I
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3331  10 0         1     0      1       D
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3351   6 0         6     1      1       I
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3501   0 0         3     0      1       D
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3551   2 0         1     1      0       I
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3591   3 0         3     0      0       D
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3711   0 0         3     1      0       I
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3801  10 0         1     0      0       R
3811   7 0         3     1      0       I
3821   8 0         3     0      0       I
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3841   1 0         0     1      0       D
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3861   1 0         1     1      0       I
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6751   3 0         3     0      1       D
6761  10 0         3     0      0       I
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6801   2 0         6     1      0       R
6811   5 0         3     0      1       I
6851   4 0         3     1      0       D
6861   5 0         5     0      0       I
6871   0 0         5     0      0       I
6891   0 0         3     0      0       D
6901   8 0         0     0      0       R
6921   2 0         5     1      0       I
6931   0 0         3     0      0       I
6951   2 0         3     0      0       D
6961   0 0         3     0      0       D
6971   8 0         4     0      0       R
6981   5 0         3     0      0       I
7001   4 0         2     0      0       D
7011  10 0         5     1      0       R
7031   0 0         1     0      0       D
7041   6 0         4     0      0       R
7051   4 0         1     0      0       D
7061   8 0         0     1      0       D
7071   0 0         0     0      0       I
7091   6 0         5     0      0       I
7101   3 0         4     0      0       R
7111   5 0         1     0      0       D
7121   9 0         2     0      0       D
7141   9 0         0     1      0       D
7151   0 0         3     0      0       R
7161   1 0         1     0      0       D
7171   1 0         1     0      0       D
7191   3 0         3     0      0       D
7211   9 0         0     0      0       D
7231   3 0         3     0      0       R
7271   0 0         4     1      0       R
7321   9 0         5     0      1       D
7331   5 0         3     0      0       D
7461   0 0         4     1      0       R
7471   1 0         3     1      0       I
7481   7 0         1     0      0       I
7491   5 0         5     1      0       R
7501   0 0         1     0      0       D
7511   8 0         3     0      0       D
7531   6 0         2     1      0       I
7541   0 0         3     1      0       I
7551   1 0         3     1      0       I
7561   7 0         4     0      0       R
7591   3 0         4     0      1       D
7601   7 0         3     1      0       D
7611   7 0         0     0      0       D
7621   0 0         0     0      0       D
7651   4 0         3     0      0       I
7671   2 0         1     1      1       D
7681   2 0         2     0      0       D
7691   7 0         3     0      0       D
7711   0 0         2     0      0       I
7721   3 0         1     0      0       D
7731   5 0         0     0      0       I
7741   4 0         3     0      0       I
7751   5 0         2     0      0       D
7781   5 0         5     1      0       R
7801   3 0         1     0      0       D
7831   8 0         0     0      0       R
7861   7 0         4     0      1       I
7871   2 0         1     0      1       D
7881   6 0         1     1      0       D
7891   5 0         1     0      0       I
7901   8 0         5     1      0       R
7911   1 0         2     0      1       I
7921   0 0         0     0      0       D
7931  10 0         1     1      0       R
7941   9 0         6     0      0       D
7951   8 0         5     1      0       R
7971   4 0         4     0      1       I
8001   0 0         3     0      1       D
8011   3 0         2     0      0       D
8021  10 0         5     0      0       R
8031   0 0         1     0      1       I
8041   2 0         3     0      1       I
8051   0 0         1     1      1       D
8061   4 0         1     0      1       D
8071   3 0         4     1      0       I
8081   0 0         3     0      0       D
8111   0 0         3     0      1       R
8121   4 0         3     0      1       D
8131   0 0         0     0      1       D
8151   3 0         4     0      1       D
8161   7 0         6     0      0       R
8201   3 0         0     0      1       D
8231   5 0         4     1      1       D
8251   6 0         1     0      0       I
8271   0 0         2     0      1       D
8281   9 0         4     0      1       D
8311   8 0         3     1      1       D
8321   4 0         3     1      1       I
8341   6 0         3     1      0       R
8351   4 0         3     1      0       I
8381   7 0         0     1      0       R
8391   5 0         3     0      1       I
8401   0 0         0     1      1       I
8461  10 0         0     1      0       D
8481   3 0         4     1      1       R
8491   9 0         3     1      0       R
8521  10 0         0     1      0       R
8541   4 0         6     1      0       R
8551   0 0         1     1      1       D
8571  10 0         5     1      0       R
8581   3 0         2     1      1       R
8591   1 0         3     1      1       R
8601  10 0         3     1      0       D
8611   6 0         3     1      1       D
8621   4 0         2     1      0       D
8631   8 0         1     1      0       D
8641   8 0         5     1      1       R
8661   0 0         3     1      1       D
8681   0 0         3     1      1       D
8701   0 0         0     1      1       D
8711   6 0         3     1      0       I
8731   3 0         3     1      1       R
8771   8 0         5     1      0       R
8781   5 0         4     1      0       R
8791   6 0         1     0      1       D
8801   3 0         1     1      1       R
8811   1 0         4     1      0       R
8861   7 0         4     1      1       R
8901   5 0         4     1      1       R
8931   2 0         2     1      0       R
8951   0 0         0     1      0       I
8961   6 0         1     1      0       D
8971   6 0         5     1      0       R
8981   5 0         5     1      0       R
8991   5 0         1     1      0       R
9001  10 0         3     1      0       R
9011   1 0         2     1      0       I
9021   7 0         0     1      0       I
9041   5 0         3     1      0       I
9071  10 0         3     1      0       R
9131   5 0         0     1      0       I
9151   7 0         3     0      0       D
9161   9 0         5     1      0       R
9201  10 0         1     0      0       D
9211   3 0         3     1      0       R
9221   6 0         1     1      0       I
9251   7 0         5     0      0       R
9271   0 0         1     1      0       R
9281   5 0         2     1      0       I
9291   4 0         3     1      0       I
9301   8 0         2     1      0       R
9311   0 0         4     1      0       I
9331  10 0         0     1      0       R
9341   7 0         0     1      0       R
9361   7 0         4     1      0       D
9381   8 0         3     1      0       I
9481   7 0         3     1      0       D
9491   2 0         1     0      0       I
9511   9 0         6     1      0       D
9561   4 0         3     1      0       R
9621   6 0         4     1      0       I
9681   5 0         3     1      0       R
9701   4 0         3     1      0       D
9741   0 0         0     1      0       D
9751   8 0         1     1      0       R
9761   1 0         4     1      0       I
9771   0 0         3     1      0       R
9791   2 0         0     1      0       D
9861   9 0         6     1      0       D
9871   1 0         1     0      1       D
9891   0 0         3     1      1       R
9921   0 0         6     1      1       R
9951   5 0         4     1      0       R
9961   7 0         3     1      1       I
9991   4 0         3     1      1       D
10001 10 0         6     1      1       R
10021  1 0         3     1      1       R
10041  5 0         4     1      0       R
10051  0 0         1     1      1       I
10071  2 0         3     1      0       I
10091  1 0         1     1      1       D
10111  5 0         6     1      0       R
10121  2 0         3     1      0       I
10141  0 0         3     1      1       R
10151  7 0         1     1      0       D
10161  8 0         2     1      0       D
10171  9 0         5     1      0       R
10181  4 0         3     1      0       I
10191  4 0         4     1      0       R
10201  0 0         1     0      1       D
10211  6 0         4     1      0       D
10231  5 0         3     1      1       I
10241  2 0         1     1      0       D
10281  4 0         4     1      0       R
10311  5 0         3     1      1       I
10321  4 0         4     1      1       D
10381  3 0         2     0      1       D
10401  7 0         4     0      0       I
10421  8 0         3     1      0       D
10441  3 0         3     1      1       D
10451  8 0         5     1      1       R
10491  0 0         3     1      1       D
10501  6 0         4     1      1       R
10511  6 0         3     1      1       D
10521  5 0         5     1      0       R
10531  5 0         3     1      1       I
10541  5 0         3     0      1       D
10561  5 0         3     1      1       R
10571  6 0         3     1      1       R
10581 10 0         5     1      1       R
10591  4 0         3     1      1       R
10611  7 0         3     0      0       D
10631  5 0         6     1      1       R
10641  5 0         5     1      0       I
10661  9 0         1     1      1       I
10671 10 0         3     1      1       I
10681  2 0         1     0      1       I
10701  1 0         0     1      0       D
10711  4 0         4     0      0       D
10721  0 0         5     1      1       I
10731  4 0         5     1      1       R
10741  5 0         4     1      0       I
10751  7 0         2     1      1       D
10761  7 0         1     1      1       D
10821  1 0         2     1      1       D
10871  2 0         1     1      1       D
10891  7 0         1     1      0       D
10911  5 0         3     1      1       I
10921  5 0         6     1      1       R
10941  5 0         4     1      1       R
10991  3 0         1     1      1       D
11001  0 0         3     1      1       D
11021  5 0         2     1      1       D
11071  7 0         5     1      0       R
11081  0 0         2     1      1       I
11091  0 0         2     1      1       D
11101  0 0         6     1      1       R
11111  5 0         3     1      1       D
11121  0 0         6     1      1       R
11151  1 0         6     1      0       R
11161  2 0         1     1      0       I
11171  3 0         5     1      1       R
11181  0 0         1     1      0       D
11201  5 0         1     1      0       D
11211  7 0         4     0      1       I
11221  6 0         3     1      1       I
11231  6 0         1     1      0       R
11241  1 0         2     1      1       I
11251  3 0         3     1      1       I
11261  0 0         4     1      1       D
11291  0 0         3     1      0       I
11301  0 0         4     1      0       I
11321  5 0         3     1      1       I
11521  6 0         2     1      0       R
11541  2 0         3     1      1       D
11561  5 0         4     1      0       R
11571  5 0         1     1      1       I
11581  7 0         3     1      1       I
11591  0 0         5     1      1       R
11611  2 0         5     1      1       R
11621  3 0         3     1      1       I
11641  0 0         5     1      0       R
11651 10 0         1     1      0       R
11661 10 0         5     1      0       I
11691  1 0         5     1      0       R
11721 10 0         3     1      0       R
11751  9 0         5     1      0       R
11761  4 0         0     1      0       D
11861  2 0         0     1      0       D
11871  5 0         6     1      0       I
11881  2 0         1     1      0       D
11891  6 0         3     1      0       D
11901 10 0         0     1      0       R

Results

main1 = difference_in_means(Y ~ Z, data = w2) %>% tidy()

main2 = lm_robust(Y ~ Z, data = w2) %>% tidy()

adj = lm_robust(Y ~ Z + white + female + partyID, data = w2) %>% tidy()
estimator estimate std.error conf.low conf.high p.value
Diff. in means 0.476 0.119 0.242 0.709 0.0000662
OLS (no controls) 0.476 0.119 0.242 0.709 0.0000662
OLS + controls 0.413 0.116 0.185 0.642 0.000392

What if I don’t have random assignment?

Strategy 2: Ignorability

What if we cannot assume random assignment?

Strategy 2: Ignorability

We can still conduct valid causal inference if we believe treatment assignment is strongly ignorable (conditional on covariates)

Requirements:

  • Conditional independence: \((Y_i(0), Y_i(1)) \perp \!\!\! \perp D_i | \mathbf{X}_i\)
  • Positivity: There exists \(\epsilon > 0\) such that \[\epsilon < Pr[D_i = 1 | \mathbf{X}_i] < 1 - \epsilon\]

Strategy 2: Ignorability

If strong ignorability holds:

  • ATE \(E[\tau_i]\) is point-identified
  • Conditional ATE (CATE) \(E[\tau_i | \mathbf{X}_i]\) is point-identified

Estimation strategies (more in the lab):

  • Conditioning on covariates (regression)
  • Propensity score matching
  • IPW estimation
  • Doubly robust estimation

Post-treatment variables

Randomization implies independence: \((Y_i(0), Y_i(1)) \perp \!\!\! \perp D_i\)

Strong ignorability requires conditional independence: \((Y_i(0), Y_i(1)) \perp \!\!\! \perp D_i | \mathbf{X}_i\)

Neither needs to be true for post-treatment variables

Conditioning on post-treatment variables introduces bias

Wrapping up

  • Causal inference requires imposing additional assumptions

  • Easy to justify with experiments (but hard to implement)

  • Hard to justify in observational studies (easy to p-hack, HARK)

  • Next step: “Quasi”-experimental designs

Bonus: Quasi-experiments

What if we could guarantee strong ignorability by design?

Quasi-experiments

  • Observational studies
  • Data structured such that we can credibly make causal claims
  • We can treat them as experiments but they are not

Examples:

  1. Regression discontinuity design (RDD)

  2. Difference-in-differences (DID)

RDD ingredients

  • \(Y_i\): outcome

  • \(X_i\): score or running variable

  • \(c\): cutoff or threshold

  • \(T_i\): Treatment indicator

Potential outcomes

\[ Y_i = (1 - T_i) Y_i(0) + T_i Y_i(1) = \begin{cases} Y_i(0) & \text{if } X_i < c\\ Y_i(1) & \text{if } X_i \geq c \end{cases} \]

Sharp RDD

Interpretation: Two approaches

  1. Local randomization

  2. Continuity-based

Local randomization approach

  • Bandwidth \(\mathcal{W} = [c−w,c+w]\)

  • Treatment as-if random within \(\mathcal{W}\)

  • ATE point-identified within \(\mathcal{W}\)

Local randomization approach

Requirements

  1. Known probability distribution of scores within \(\mathcal{W}\) (\(\equiv\) random assignment)

  2. Potential outcomes not affected by scores within \(\mathcal{W}\)

Local randomization approach

Estimation

  • Difference in means within \(\mathcal{W}\)

Inference

  1. Randomization inference

  2. Normal-approximation (super-population)

Continuity-based approach

  • ATE is point-identified at cutoff

  • \(\tau_{SRD} \equiv E[Y_i(1) - Y_i(0) | X_i = c]\)

  • But it does not exist!

  • Still, we can approximate

Continuity-based approach

  • ATE is point-identified at cutoff

  • \(\tau_{SRD} \equiv E[Y_i(1) - Y_i(0) | X_i = c]\)

  • But it does not exist!

  • Still, we can approximate

\[ \lim_{x \downarrow c} E[Y_i | X_i = x] - \lim_{x \uparrow c} E[Y_i | X_i x] \]

Local polynomial point estimation

Steps

  1. Choose polynomial \(p\) and kernel function \(K(\cdot)\)

  2. Choose bandwidth \(h\)

  3. Fit \(\widehat \mu_+\) and \(\widehat \mu_-\) via weighted least-squares (based on \(K(\cdot)\))

  4. Estimate: \(\widehat \tau_{SRD} = \widehat \mu_+ - \widehat \mu_-\)

  5. Inference: Correct for adaptive bandwidth selection

Polynomial \(p\)

Kernel function \(K(\cdot)\)

Bandwidth \(h\)

DID ingredients

  • Time periods: \(t = \{1,2\}\) (Before/after treatment)

  • Treatment: \(D_i = \{0,1\}\)

  • Potential outcomes: \(Y_{i,t}(0) = Y_{i,t}(0, 0)\) and \(Y_{i,t}(1) = Y_{i,t}(0, 1)\)

Switching equation

\[ Y_{i,t} = D_i Y_{i,t}(1) + (1-D_i) Y_{i,t}(0) \]

Causal estimand

Average treated effect on the treated (ATT) in \(t=2\)

\[ \tau_2 = E[Y_{i,2}(1) - Y_{i,2}(0) | D_i = 1] \]

  • Cannot observe directly

  • Cannot avoid selection bias

  • But before/after setup allows for valid estimation

Causal estimand

DID estimation

\[ \widehat{ATT} = [\text{Mean}(B) - \text{Mean}(A)] - [\text{Mean}(D) - \text{Mean}(C)] \]

DID estimation

\[ \widehat{ATT} = \underbrace{[\text{Mean}(B) - \text{Mean}(A)]}_\text{Difference} - \underbrace{[\text{Mean}(D) - \text{Mean}(C)]}_\text{Difference} \]

DID estimation

\[ \widehat{ATT} = \underbrace{\underbrace{[\text{Mean}(B) - \text{Mean}(A)]}_\text{Difference} - \underbrace{[\text{Mean}(D) - \text{Mean}(C)]}_\text{Difference}}_\text{Difference-in-differences} \]

Rewrite as a regression estimator

Two time periods

\[ \begin{align} Y = & \beta_0 + \beta_1 \text{Treated} + \beta_2 \text{Post-treatment} + \\ & \color{purple}{\beta_3 \text{Treated} \times \text{Post-treatment}} + \varepsilon \end{align} \]

# Both are the same
lm(Y ~ Treated * Post-treatment, data = dat)

lm(Y ~ Treated + Post-treatment + Treated:Post-treatment, data= dat)

Rewrite as a regression estimator

Multiple time periods

\[ Y = \alpha_i + \alpha_t + \color{purple}{\beta_1 \text{Treated}} + \varepsilon \]

Known as the two-way fixed-effects estimator (TWFE)

lm_robust(
  Y ~ Treated,
  fixed_effects = ~Unit + Time,
  clusters = Unit,
  se_type = "stata", # faster computing
  data = dat
)

Challenge: Staggered adoption